I. Geopolitical level: Since the day the U.S.-Iran negotiations began, I’ve said that this factor’s influence on market movements would continue to weaken. To be honest, I didn’t expect the talks to progress so quickly and with so little back-and-forth—this is now a positive. But by the same logic: just as its negative impact has diminished, so too has its positive impact. As this factor’s weight in market dynamics continues to decline, it can effectively be disregarded. II. Policy: I’ve fallen into an information bubble. Over the past few days, my X “Recommended for You” feed has been flooded with posts about the “CLARITY ACT”—all English-language fake news (old stories repackaged with new headlines). Yet, no markup has been publicly disclosed. With 12 days left in April, if no progress emerges before the window closes, sentiment across the crypto space (including crypto-related equities) could experience a sharp reversal. III. Liquidity: Key events (news, policy, etc.) shouldn’t be used to subjectively guess market direction—they provide a clearer lens to observe how assets react to event-driven stimuli. For instance, recent liquidity tightening showed that asset performance prior to the tightening was actually strong. Moreover, this tightening window is narrow (tightening begins April 15, easing starts after month-end). IV. U.S. equities: We can view this as a new uptrend. Although indices appear dramatic, internal rotation among sectors remains orderly and healthy—aside from this 17-day consecutive rally. V. Crypto: At this point, it’s still best viewed as a rebound. Current conditions: 1. BTC is rising closer to structural resistance, ratio pressure, and moving average resistance (Figure 1); 2. The view that “altcoins are garbage; this is a dead cat bounce” (profitable short-term, bearish long-term) remains unchanged. With more and more low-cap alts participating in this dead cat bounce—and no meaningful接力 from large-cap coins—the market is growing increasingly risky; 3. Simple logic: U.S. equities are rebounding due to a fundamental correction correction; BTC and ETH are following that sentiment; small-cap garbage alts are amplifying it; 4. The next key short-term trigger point, in my view, is the progress of the “CLARITY ACT.” If credible positive news emerges soon, this rally could shift from a sentiment-driven dead cat bounce to a fundamentally supported uptrend. If negative news arrives instead, prepare for an extreme sentiment collapse. Forget long-term forecasts—too many variables: even if the bill fails, liquidity may return in May; Fed policy could shift; new surprises may emerge. Stick to price action. 5. Long-term technical analysis: https://t.co/p9kQnxmqmz Theoretically, the higher it rises, the better. VI. Finally, on trading: 1. Crypto may still see sentiment spikes, but I believe we’ve reached the stage where holding any longer means you’ve already missed the peak (how many levels above those teachers telling you to short at $70k, $72k, $74k, $76k?). I’m holding only one coin right now; if it doesn’t move next week, I’m selling it too—giving it one more week (a small altcoin, unnamed). 2. Want to short crypto but it’s too volatile? Fine—keep sending Silver to $50 (Figure 2). 3. In U.S. equities: I reduced my position in $CRCL when it rose above $100 after buying below $90. After FOMO, catching falling knives, slight break-even, and finally turning profitable, I can now view this stock rationally—process was nerve-wracking but smooth. I reallocated part of my position to $HOOD, which has a gap near $98 (Figure 3); I believe the first leg will likely reach that level. 4. After receiving feedback from actions 1–3, I’ll formulate my next trading plan. ——If this thread helped you, please turn on notifications and engage. Thank you.——