The perpetuals market has become extremely risky. At this point, you shouldn’t trade with more than 100% of your capital — meaning no leverage at all — otherwise you must accept that even 1.1× leverage can lead to liquidation. That’s a terrible risk profile. So what options do we have left? At the moment, single-name volatility is more attractive. For example, trading ZEC is currently more interesting than BTC, simply because BTC’s range has compressed too much. But if the market keeps growing and maturing, these opportunities will gradually disappear. Bitcoin’s volatility will likely converge toward something closer to the S&P 500, and many traders who came from Wall Street will simply go back there. Even now, scalping or day trading BTC is already very difficult — price often moves in a 5–10% range, which is barely tradable once fees, slippage, and liquidation risk are considered. As Bitcoin becomes more of a currency-like asset, it will become: less volatile less profitable to trade more suitable as a long-term holding At that point, for anyone who has no issue with KYC, it would make more sense to trade BTC via ETFs or futures on a real broker like Interactive Brokers ($IBKR) rather than through CEXs — or worse, taking additional risks on DEXs. In short: If Bitcoin stops being profitable to trade, we’ll have to go back to equities. And when we do, it won’t be on Hyperliquid or Lighter — it will be through regulated brokers. Crypto may still offer some edge, but mostly for professionals: BTC options strategies spot–futures arbitrage capturing higher interest rates on CEXs than traditional finance However, if volatility keeps falling, even these edges will shrink. Bitcoin would then become mainly a position asset. And historically, lower volatility increases the probability that buy-and-hold outperforms swing trading. This is my view. I’m not sure how many years traders can survive with only a few tickers to trade, when a well-diversified stock portfolio can offer similar or even higher returns, with far more tools available — fundamentals, earnings, macro forecasts, and multi-year visibility.

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