xm39 Trader Cuts Crude Oil Position Ahead of Price Drop, Rebuilds $1M Long

HuoXing Finance reports that, according to Hyperinsight monitoring, on the evening of July 31, the address associated with the prediction market trader “xm39” closed all 82,700 long positions in crude oil (CL) on Hyperliquid, with a total trading volume of approximately $6.904 million at an average closing price of $83.52, realizing a profit of about $97,000. Thereafter, the address maintained a short position in crude oil for two days. This exit occurred approximately one day before geopolitical tensions showed signs of easing—specifically, before Trump subsequently announced the suspension of planned strikes against Iran and indicated intentions to resume negotiations on issues such as reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Following this news, WTI crude oil dropped more than 9% to $80 during Asian trading hours, hitting a three-week low. Based on the 82,700 positions closed and the average closing price compared to the current price, this exit avoided an approximate $317,000 notional drawdown. Shortly after the news broke, xm39 re-established a long position on Sunday noon, first buying 38,400 contracts at an average price of $81.08; during the morning’s further price decline, the trader added another 86,700 contracts at an average price of $79.93. As of publication, the address currently holds a 20x leveraged long position of 125,100 crude oil contracts, with a position value of approximately $9.97 million and a weighted average entry price of $80.28, resulting in a floating loss of about $75,000 (-15.0%); the liquidation price is $78.12, just $1.56 below the current price. Meanwhile, the Polymarket wallet controlled by the same entity continued increasing its bet on “The U.S. will invade Iran before 2027” by purchasing 38,000 “Yes” shares at an average price of $0.20 this morning, investing approximately $7,600. Its related bets have now increased to 937,700 shares with a total cost of approximately $254,700; at the current quote of $0.205, the position value is about $192,200, with a floating loss of approximately $62,500 (a loss rate of about 24.5%). By exiting before the oil price collapse and re-entering long positions after the geopolitical easing news was confirmed, xm39 clearly does not fully accept the current narrative of de-escalation. Although its trading timing frequently aligns with macro events, overall it has not generated substantial profits. Previous report: “Whale Alert” increased war expectations to 900,000 contracts; prediction market trader “xm39” opened a new $3.2 million position in Nasdaq futures.