The World Meteorological Organization Confirms the Formation and Strengthening of El Niño

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1. On September 3, the World Meteorological Organization released a latest advisory confirming that El Niño has formed and will continue to strengthen.

2. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 29 came in at 206,000, the highest since the week ending August 15.

3. The fourth round of coke price increases has been fully implemented, bringing the total increase to 350-385 yuan/ton to date.

4. Malaysia's palm oil inventories in August are expected to rise for the fifth consecutive month to 2.76 million tons, up 4.9% from July.

5. As of September 1, 2026, the drought percentage in the U.S. soybean-producing regions was 30%, an increase of 2 percentage points from last week.

6. Saudi Arabia set the October official selling price for Arab Light crude oil to Asia at a $2 per barrel discount to the Oman/Dubai average price.

7. As of September 3, the spot inventory of lithium ore among 33 sampled lithium ore traders amounted to 134,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons week-over-week.

1. On September 3, the World Meteorological Organization released a latest advisory confirming that El Niño has formed and will continue to strengthen, expected to develop into an extreme event, significantly impacting global precipitation and temperature patterns, with associated extreme weather risks persisting until 2027.

2. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "2025 and 2026 Allocation Totals and Allocation Plans for the Power Generation Sector, and the 2026 Allocation Plan for the Steel, Cement, and Aluminum Smelting Sectors" in the National Carbon Emission Trading Market.

On September 3, the 2026 World Battery Power Conference was held in Yibin, Sichuan. Deputy Minister of Industry and Information Technology Xiong Jijun stated at the event that measures must be taken to curb low-price competition and blind expansion, promoting a healthy and orderly market environment.

4. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 29 came in at 206,000, the highest since the week ending August 15, compared to the market expectation of 205,000.

5. The Iranian military issued a statement claiming that, earlier that day, it launched missile and drone strikes on the U.S. Ahmad Al-Jaber Base in Kuwait, targeting its satellite communication systems, equipment warehouses, and fighter jet hangars, resulting in casualties.

1. International precious metals futures generally closed higher; COMEX gold futures rose 2.39% to $4,520.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.24% to $67.58 per ounce.

2. The front-month U.S. crude oil contract closed up 0.73% at $91.67 per barrel; the front-month Brent crude oil contract rose 0.3% to $95.92 per barrel.

3. Most base metals in London rose: LME tin advanced 1.23% to $54,900.0 per ton, LME aluminum rose 1.04% to $3,317.5 per ton, LME copper increased 1.03% to $14,362.0 per ton, LME zinc climbed 0.84% to $3,897.5 per ton, LME lead gained 0.66% to $1,907.0 per ton, while LME nickel slipped 0.05% to $16,905.0 per ton.

4. As of the close at 23:00 on September 3, the majority of domestic futures main contracts rose. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) increased nearly 4%, pure benzene and styrene (EB) rose over 2%, while propylene, coking coal, and polypropylene gained over 1%. On the downside, rapeseed oil fell nearly 1%.

1. According to Jiaolian Information, major steel mills in East and North China have accepted a price increase of RMB 100–110 per ton for coke, with the fourth round of coke price hikes fully implemented; cumulative increases to date total RMB 350–385 per ton.

2. According to Mysteel, for the week ending September 3, rebar production decreased for the sixth consecutive week, mill inventories decreased for the fourth consecutive week, social inventories shifted from an increase to a decline, and apparent demand decreased for the second consecutive week. Specifically, rebar production was 1.6913 million tons, down 39,500 tons from the previous week; mill inventories stood at 1.595 million tons, down 38,300 tons from the previous week; social inventories totaled 5.0546 million tons, down 58,600 tons from the previous week; and apparent demand was 1.7882 million tons, down 24,600 tons from the previous week.

4. According to Mysteel, at the beginning of September, inventory at the Ganqimaojiu port regulatory area dropped below 1.9 million tons; environmental inspections were preliminarily concluded, and the number of cleared vehicles slightly increased, with an average of 701.5 vehicles cleared per day in September, up 20.97% month-over-month.

5. According to Mysteel, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 67.8%, down 0.2% month-over-month; daily raw coal production averaged 1.524 million tons, down 0.05 million tons month-over-month; raw coal inventory stood at 4.013 million tons, down 0.009 million tons month-over-month.

6. According to Mysteel's survey, this week the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants nationwide was -86 yuan/ton; among them, the average profit for secondary-grade coke in Shanxi was -35 yuan/ton, in Shandong it was -67 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia it was -59 yuan/ton, and in Hebei it was -21 yuan/ton.

1. The pricing document shows that Saudi Arabia has set the October official selling price for Arab Light crude oil to Asia at a $2/bbl discount to the Oman/Dubai average price.

2. According to Longzhong Information, as of September 3, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 73.675 million standard cases, a decrease of 0.374 million standard cases环比, or 0.5%, and an increase of 16.85% year-over-year. The total inventory of MEG in the East China main port area was 139,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous period. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.9113 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons from Monday, up 0.15%.

3. As of September 3, the methanol inventory at East China ports was 344,700 metric tons, down from 381,400 metric tons on August 27, a decrease of 36,700 metric tons month-over-month.

4. According to data from Singapore’s Enterprise Singapore (ESG), as of the week ending September 2, Singapore’s fuel oil inventories rose by 1.213 million barrels to reach a 14-week high of 20.453 million barrels.

5. According to Longzhong Information, the production line of Guangxi Nanning Float Glass Co., Ltd. with a designed capacity of 700 tons/day began cooling the kiln on the afternoon of the 2nd; the exact time for water release is still being monitored.

6. EIA Natural Gas Report: As of the week ending August 28, the total U.S. natural gas inventory stood at 3.214 trillion cubic feet, an increase of 30 billion cubic feet from the previous week and a decrease of 50 billion cubic feet compared to the same period last year.

1. According to research data from Fubao Information, as of September 3, the weekly lithium carbonate production was 24,700 tons, up 4.22% week-over-week (an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous period); lithium carbonate inventory stood at 71,100 tons, down 3.48% week-over-week (a decrease of 2,567 tons from the previous period).

2. According to Mysteel, as of September 3, the spot inventory of lithium ore among 33 sampled lithium ore traders amounted to 134,000 metric tons, a decrease of 15,000 metric tons week-over-week, of which 93,000 metric tons were available for sale, down 10,000 metric tons week-over-week.

3. According to Mysteel’s survey, as of September 3, the physical inventory of lithium ore at domestic ports amounted to 232,000 metric tons, a decrease of 12,000 metric tons week-over-week, with 157,000 metric tons stored at Zhenjiang Port, down 5,000 metric tons week-over-week.

4. According to Mysteel data, this week’s domestic primary aluminum output was 873,300 metric tons, with supply remaining at a high level. Aluminum producer inventories stopped declining and rose slightly to 600,000 metric tons, while social inventories further decreased to 789,000 metric tons.

5. According to Mysteel, as of this Thursday, the total installed capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina nationwide reached 118.42 million tons per year, with total operational capacity at 88.59 million tons per year. The national alumina weekly utilization rate increased by 0.68 percentage points week-over-week to 75.65%.

6. According to Aladdin, the sea freight rate from Guinea to China's Cape continued to strengthen on September 3, with today’s quote at $40.5 per ton, up $4.5 from the low point of $36 per ton, reaching a five-year high.

7. According to SMM, a leading petrochemical plant halted one production line for resumption yesterday and started production of LDPE on another line today; short-term production scheduling will maintain parallel production of one high-pressure material line and one photovoltaic material line. Following this line adjustment, the plant’s output of photovoltaic materials has decreased.

8. Official data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that U.S. imports of refined copper and copper alloys reached a record high of 225,094 metric tons in July, driven by traders rushing to bring in large volumes before potential U.S. tariffs are imposed.

1. Risk premium retreats, crude oil remains in a high-range consolidation pattern

Sanli Futures research report indicates that domestic crude oil rose to a peak before following overseas markets lower, dragging down the broader energy and chemical sector including methanol and ethylene glycol, with long positions exiting triggering amplified intraday volatility. On the macro level, markets are weighing the risk of escalating Middle East conflicts against the probability of full-scale expansion, leading to a temporary compression of risk premiums, though geopolitical uncertainty remains unresolved. On the supply side, the U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventory showed a larger-than-expected draw, providing fundamental support; the core OPEC+ production cut framework remains intact; actual Middle East exports face potential disruptions due to regional tensions; and non-OPEC production continues to rise. On the demand side, global refined product crack spreads remain healthy with no strong signs of weakening, but downstream buyers continue to follow a just-in-time purchasing pattern without significant restocking. In the short term, crude oil fundamentals offer underlying support, suggesting a neutral-to-bullish outlook; however, upside potential heavily depends on geopolitical catalysts from the Middle East. Without further conflict escalation, prices are likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels and unlikely to sustain a prolonged upward trend. Key future focus areas include OPEC+ meeting statements, the evolution of shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and continued validation of U.S. inventories and refined product demand.

2. Under the backdrop of the traditional peak season for gold and September, has the coking coal market changed?

Everbright Futures research report indicates that on Thursday, the coking coal futures market continued to decline, with the main contract 2701 falling over 3% during trading. The resumption of production at coal mines in the source regions remains slow, with capacity release constrained under strict safety inspections; most mine inventories are at low levels, and order schedules have increased环比. A "shortage of quality coal" has emerged in some areas, with miners holding firm on prices and showing strong intentions to raise quotes. Online auction markets remain active, and some futures-spot traders have recently started to offload inventory. Coke producers have seen some recovery in profit margins, supporting steady underlying demand for raw coal. The fourth round of coke price hikes has further strengthened bullish expectations across the industrial chain. Pig iron output remains high, and steel mills continue to show resilient consumption of coke. Coking coal futures are expected to trade sideways in the near term.

1. TBA on September 4: FAO publishes the global food price index for August.

2. On September 4 at 20:30, the U.S. released the seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment and unemployment rate for August.

3. On September 6, OPEC+ held a ministerial meeting to discuss oil production policy.