ChainCatcher report: Wintermute’s market update noted that the stronger-than-expected August non-farm payrolls data pushed the probability of a rate hike to nearly 60%. Bitcoin briefly pulled back from $82,400 but closed the week up 3.45%, holding above $80,000. Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $987 million, marking the third consecutive week of positive flows and bringing cumulative inflows to nearly $3.8 billion, indicating that the crypto market has withstood the hawkish data. Bitcoin is currently down approximately 50% from its peak, a much shallower decline compared to the over 75% drops seen during the same periods in 2018 and 2022, reflecting earlier institutional and ETF participation. Wintermute believes capital is shifting from equities and gold into crypto assets, setting the stage for a new cycle. $82,000 is a key level to break above, while $72,000 serves as the critical threshold for assessing a potential trend reversal. Next week’s CLARITY bill vote, along with the CPI and FOMC meetings, will be pivotal; Robinhood’s Chain Gas subsidy ending at the end of September will be the first test of sustained activity. If Bitcoin falls below $72,000 and ETF outflows turn significantly negative, a reassessment will be necessary.
Wintermute: Crypto Market Withstands Hawkish Data as Capital Shifts from Stocks and Gold
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Summary
Inflation data from the August nonfarm payrolls report increased the likelihood of a rate hike to nearly 60%, yet the crypto market remained resilient. Bitcoin briefly dipped from $82,400 before closing the week up 3.45% above $80,000. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $987 million net inflow for the third consecutive week, bringing total inflows to nearly $3.8 billion. Bitcoin has declined approximately 50% from its peak—less than the 75% drops seen in 2018 and 2022—indicating stronger institutional participation. Capital is shifting from stocks and gold into crypto, signaling potential for a new bull cycle. The $82,000 level is critical to break, while $72,000 remains a key support. The CLARITY Act vote, CPI data, and FOMC meeting are all scheduled for next week. Robinhood’s Chain Gas subsidy ends in September, marking the first test of user activity sustainability. A drop below $72,000 or sustained ETF outflows would signal a need for reassessment.
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