Wintermute: Crypto Market Loses Flow Support, BTC Faces Short-Term Pressure

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The BTC market update shows that the Fed’s meeting minutes signaled further rate hikes before year-end, with no indication of rate cuts. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached a multi-decade high, pushing BTC down 3.2% to $83,000 and ETH down 7.0%. U.S. spot BTC ETFs experienced a $679 million outflow—the largest since June—while ETH ETFs lost $542 million. CoinGlass reported $1.19 billion in liquidations, primarily from long positions. BTC’s market share increased to 59.5%. Wintermute advises monitoring the September CPI data and AI-related earnings for potential market shifts.

According to Wintermute’s weekly market update, the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes revealed that most officials anticipated another interest rate hike before the end of the year, with no mention of rate cuts, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached a multi-decade high. As a result, BTC fell 3.2% this week to the $83,000 range, ETH dropped 7.0%, while the S&P 500 rose 1.2% to a new all-time high.
The U.S. spot BTC ETFs experienced a weekly net outflow of approximately $679 million, the largest weekly outflow since June; ETH ETFs saw an outflow of $542 million. CoinGlass data shows that around $1.19 billion in positions were liquidated within 24 hours near Thursday’s low, with long positions accounting for $1.06 billion. ETH faced additional pressure due to a recommendation from researchers associated with the Ethereum Foundation for users to migrate to new addresses. BTC’s market share rose to approximately 59.5%, marking the most notable internal signal of the week.
Wintermute noted that, amid the Fed’s inclination toward rate hikes, yields are unlikely to decline in the short term. A renewed optimism toward the crypto market requires two conditions to be met simultaneously: "long-term interest rates stabilizing" and "spot ETFs resuming net inflows." The focus this week should be on the September CPI data released on Wednesday, as well as earnings reports from financial institutions and AI-related companies.

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