BlockBeats report, August 4: Wintermute stated that the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate unchanged last week, helping stabilize U.S. equities, partly due to the completion of large forced selling. The leveraged AI fund Situational Awareness publicly sold its positions at a discount to Citadel Investments. After a sharp decline in AI infrastructure longs and a short squeeze in software stocks, chip stock selling had previously become self-reinforcing; however, after the position transfer, the market was able to absorb the hawkish hold. The crypto market remained relatively resilient, with Strategy again selling Bitcoin to pay preferred dividends, a Coldcard firmware vulnerability led to the theft of large Bitcoin holdings from users, and altcoins continued to be liquidated.
The sequence of U.S. equities correcting first, followed by crypto, aligns with our prior assessment; major cryptocurrencies have retraced less than 4% despite multiple pressures, indicating that marginal selling pressure is nearing exhaustion. At this stage, it remains unwise to take heavy positions in anticipation of a strong rebound, but持仓 and options data suggest some participants may be caught off guard by short-term technical rallies. This week, focus on the ISM services and non-farm payrolls data; the Jackson Hole symposium represents the last clear signaling window before the September Fed meeting. The proportion of institutional OTC spot trading has risen to a record 72%, with liquidity continuing to concentrate further in mainstream assets.