Given the nature of its blockchain, bitcoin was long considered to move around within a broader four-year cycle prompted by the halving, which takes place in general every four years. However, the pattern has been rejected in the past year or so, and popular on-chain analyst Willy Woo took the same approach in his latest opinion on the matter.
He suggested that BTC may be transitioning toward a six-to-eight-year cycle, increasingly influenced by the same debt and liquidity conditions that drive traditional financial markets.
From Halving to Liquidity?
Woo’s reasoning begins with the cryptocurrency’s diminishing supply shock. Following the latest halving in April 2024, new BTC issuance dropped to approximately 0.8% of the existing supply per year. The next event, scheduled to take place in early 2028, will reduce that figure to roughly 0.4%.
As newly mined supply becomes increasingly insignificant relative to the existing market, Woo argued that the halving’s ability to dictate BTC’s broader price cycle weakens. Instead, the asset may begin moving more closely with TradFi’s six-to-eight-year short-term debt cycle.
The halving framework worked remarkably well for much of bitcoin’s history. Now, though, the market structure has changed dramatically, perhaps mostly from the US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Current data shows that these financial products hold close to 1.3 million BTC, which is over 6% of the circulating supply. Public companies with at least 1,000 BTC currently own over a million units.
Together, ETFs and those corporate treasuries controlled almost 12% of circulating BTC – vastly more than miners now create annually.
Others who have supported the narrative that the four-year cycle is dead include Arthur Hayes, who claimed in 2025 that traders focus too heavily on it, and Fidelity Digital Assets. In a report from last year, the analysts questioned whether BTC’s maturing market could produce more gradual rallies and corrections rather than the violent boom-and-bust cycles of the past.
Not Everyone Is Convinced
Galaxy Research examined the same question in June this year, but concluded something different – BTC’s four-year cycle remains visible in the data. The researchers noted that bitcoin again peaked in October 2025, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving – precisely within the historical window.
The difference is that each cycle is becoming less extreme. Bitcoin’s previous bear markets produced drawdowns of approximately 85%, 84%, and 77%, while the decline to the July 1 low was considerably milder at just over 53%.
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