Willy Woo Simulates Bitcoin's Future Price to 2034, Median Outcome at $1.48M

Huo Xing Cai Jing reports that on October 27, Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo published a post introducing a Monte Carlo simulation model for BTC inspired by Sminston With. The model uses a random number generator to generate price paths based on Bitcoin’s historical market performance, simulating potential future movements. Willy Woo noted three key adjustments to the model: first, incorporating the cyclical market structure in which BTC operates; second, reconstructing BTC’s true probability distribution from historical data rather than fitting it to a predefined ideal distribution; and third, using data from the 2018 market low to the 2022 market low as input, deliberately excluding earlier BTC price action to better reflect the modern market environment shaped by derivatives, ETFs, and rapid liquidation mechanisms. Additionally, the model retains a power-law scaling mechanism to reflect the phenomenon of diminishing returns in each BTC cycle. Willy Woo specifically highlighted the 28th percentile simulation path, as it aligns with an observed pattern: the next cycle low may find support near the previous cycle’s peak. Previously, Sminston With shared another Monte Carlo experiment projecting BTC simulations to 2034, running 5,000 iterations. The results showed that no simulation fell below the current level of approximately $80,000; the median outcome was around $1.48 million, and even the bottom 5% of results reached approximately $464,000. It is important to note that these figures are simulation results based on specific assumptions and historical data, not deterministic price predictions. The model’s conclusions are subject to influences such as input data, assumptions about diminishing returns, and changes in market structure.