The White House is still confident that it could get the crypto market structure bill passed by its initial timeline of the 4th of July.
In a recent interview, the White House chief crypto advisor, Patrick Witt, said,
We’re still making great progress across three areas that the Democratic Senators had raised as the ones they wanted to see progress on. Every day, we’re doing trifecta. Mornings or afternoons on Ag, ethics, and BRCA.
The ‘Ag’ refers to the Senate Agriculture Committee’s version of the bill that determines the CFTC mandate in the crypto markets.
On the other hand, the BRCA refers to developer protection provisions, which have been widely discussed in the past few days.
Witt added that,
We’re making progress on all fronts, every day. Groups are at the table, trading paper. So, I’m still optimistic that we could hit that timeline.
This could be a positive sign, especially after earlier reports that the ethics talks had a ‘rocky’ start.
Still, the Senate calendar is packed, and lawmakers have until right before the August recess to pass the bill.
The market is 50/50 on CLARITY Act progress
However, the market was still not wholly convinced by Witt’s optimism. As of this writing, the prediction site Polymarket was pricing a 51% chance the bill could be passed by the end of this year. That is a neutral position.
For Kalshi, another prediction site with double the Polymarket volume for the same market, was pricing a 46% chance for the bill’s passage. Taken together, the market was somewhat 50/50 on the bill’s progress by the end of the year.
In fact, for the July outlook, Kalshi bettors projected a 30% odds that the bill could be passed before August.
Although the July expectations increased by about 10% in the past two days, they were still low, underscoring the disconnect between the market and White House optimism.
Apart from the limited Senate floor calendar, most analysts, including those at JPMorgan, speculated that the bill could stall due to stablecoin yield. Unless there is more color on the ongoing discussions by the White House, the bill’s path forward could remain uncertain.
Final Summary
- White House is hopeful that it can still meet the July 4 deadline for the CLARITY Act’s passage
- The market, however, was 50/50 on the bill’s progress and placed a 30% chance for passage by July.