The White House continues to adhere to the original timeline for the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, aiming to advance the legislation by July 4. White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt said that negotiations regarding several issues raised by Democratic senators are progressing daily.
The three negotiations are still ongoing.
Witt said in the interview that the current discussion focuses on three key areas: the Senate Agriculture Committee version, ethical provisions, and相关内容 regarding developer protections.
Among these, the Agriculture Committee version primarily addresses the regulatory authority of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the cryptocurrency market. The developer protection provisions relate to the BRCA-related arrangements that have been under sustained attention in recent days.
Senate scheduling remains a constraint
Witt stated that all parties continue to exchange texts and engage in negotiations, so he remains optimistic about advancing the bill on its original timeline. Previously, reports indicated that discussions around ethical provisions had faced difficulties.
However, whether the bill can proceed as envisioned by the White House still depends on the Senate’s schedule. With the U.S. Congress already facing a tight legislative calendar before its August recess, there is limited time available for voting and coordination on the bill.
Market sentiment is forecast to be neutral.
The market has not fully embraced the White House’s optimistic assessment. As of press time, prediction platform Polymarket shows a roughly 51% probability of the bill passing before the end of this year, placing it firmly in neutral territory.
Kalshi offers lower pricing for the same market. According to data from the platform, the probability of the bill passing this year is approximately 46%; if considering only the outlook for July, the probability of the bill passing before August is around 30%. Although this expectation has rebounded slightly over the past two days, the overall sentiment still reflects a cautious market attitude.
Stablecoin yield issues remain a focus of attention.
Some analysts believe that, in addition to the Senate's limited time, issues related to stablecoin yields may also slow the progress of the bill. Institutions such as JPMorgan have previously noted that this issue could become one of the obstacles in subsequent negotiations.