For aggressive traders: In the current volatile market, consider taking a small long position near support levels and reducing positions or considering shorting near resistance levels. Always set stop-loss orders for all trades.
Crypto Market Performance: Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.09 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.5% at $1.8 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $306.1 billion, an increase of 1.08% in the last 7 days. The number of stablecoins reversed this week, showing positive growth, with Circle being the main contributor, of which USDT accounts for 60.31%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most declined, with a small number rising. Specifically: BTC fell 0.78% in the last 7 days, SOL fell 2.23%, SAHARA fell 12.05%, AIOZ fell 8.09%, and PI fell 7.85%. After a period of decline, the crypto world has begun to recover, but the situation has not yet improved significantly.
This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $70.5 million; US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $312 million.
Market Forecast (December 1st - December 7th):
Currently, the RSI is 48.71 (neutral range), the Fear & Greed Index is 27 (higher than last week, generally in the fear range), and the Altcoin Season Index is 37 (neutral, higher than last week).
BTC Core Range: $85,000-95,000
ETH Core Range: $2,800-3,300
SOL Core Range: $126-156
Market Sentiment: The market has moved past the "extreme panic" phase and is slowly recovering, but due to the four-year cycle theory and whale selling, prices have not achieved a V-shaped reversal. Bitmine continues to accumulate ETH, and US spot ETFs saw net inflows this week. "Wood Sister" (a popular crypto investor) is buying the dip in crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase and Circle. The current focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 10th. Market expectations for an interest rate cut are high; if it occurs, it typically means improved liquidity, potentially boosting risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if expectations are not met, it could trigger market volatility. Currently, the probability of a Fed rate cut in December is 82.8%. Ethereum is expected to undergo the Fusaka upgrade on December 4th. Following the hack of the South Korean exchange Upbit, SOL's price has been under pressure, but recent net inflows into US spot ETFs have provided some support.
For conservative investors: When the market is in a "high fear" phase, it is often an opportunity for medium- to long-term positioning. You can consider buying in small batches near key support levels to lower the average cost, without rushing into a large position.
For aggressive traders: In the current volatile market, consider taking a small long position near support levels and reducing positions or considering shorting near resistance levels. Always set stop-loss orders for all trades.
Understanding the Present
Review of the Week's Major Events
1. On November 24th, a research report from CITIC Securities stated that New York Fed President Williams hinted at a further rate cut in December, reversing market expectations for a rate cut. Currently, the market believes there is a 70% probability of a Fed rate cut in December. The Fed will enter a blackout period on November 29th. Before this period, Powell has no scheduled public speeches or media interviews. Williams's remarks may be the last Fed official speech to influence market expectations.
2. On November 24th, according to market data, US stocks rose in early trading, with the Nasdaq up over 1.5% and the S&P 500 up by 1%. Cryptocurrency stocks generally rose.
3. On November 25th, the White House is attempting to accelerate the improvement of US scientific research capabilities through the application of artificial intelligence. US President Trump signed an executive order on Monday to launch the "Genesis Mission" program, requiring the Department of Energy and other research institutions to actively promote the deployment of artificial intelligence. 4. Michael Kratsios, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, called it "the largest consolidation of federal research resources since the Apollo program";
5. On November 25, JPMorgan Chase closed the personal accounts of Strike CEO Jack Mallers, sparking renewed concerns in the US crypto industry about a wave of "debanking";
6. On November 27, major cryptocurrencies rebounded significantly overnight and this morning. According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has rebounded to $90,000 after a week, currently priced at $90,355, a 24-hour increase of 3.83%.
7. On November 27th, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino responded to S&P's latest rating of Tether, stating, "We are proud to be disliked by you." Ardoino pointed out that the traditional rating system has long led investors to ultimately collapse "investment-grade" institutions, causing global regulators to question the independence of rating agencies. He stated that the traditional financial system is unwilling to see any company escape its "failed gravity," but Tether has built the industry's first over-capitalized, non-toxic asset, and consistently highly profitable company, proving that the fragility of the old system is making those in power, like those in "The Emperor's New Clothes," uneasy.
8. On November 27th, according to DL News, South Korean financial regulators urged Bithumb to suspend its Tether Markets service, which allows customers to buy and sell Bitcoin and nine high-market-cap altcoins using USDT. However, all 10 assets can continue to be traded on the Korean Won (KRW) market.
9. On November 27th, Upbit, South Korea's largest cryptocurrency exchange, disclosed that it detected abnormal withdrawals at 4:42 AM on November 27th, with approximately 54 billion won (about $36 million) of Solana network-related digital assets transferred to an unknown external wallet address. Upbit will bear all customer losses;
10. On November 28, according to official news, YZi Labs Management Ltd. stated that, as a major shareholder of CEA Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: BNC), it has submitted a preliminary consent statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), seeking shareholder written consent to expand the company's board of directors to add experienced and highly qualified directors.
Macroeconomic News
1. On November 26, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending November 22 was 216,000, compared to an expected 225,000;
2. On November 28, according to the Federal Reserve's interest rate monitor, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 82.8%.
ETFs
According to statistics, from November 24th to November 28th, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $70.5 million; as of November 28th, GBTC (Grayscale) experienced a total outflow of $24.971 billion, currently holding $15.21 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $70.611 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $119.682 billion.
US Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $312 million.
Future Ahead
Event Announcements
1. Bitcoin MENA will be held from December 8th to 9th at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC);
2. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will be held from December 11th to 13th in Abu Dhabi.
Project Progress
1. The Aster Stage 3 airdrop checker will open on December 1, 2025, and airdrop collection will begin on December 15;
2. FTX's fourth round of compensation is expected to begin in January 2026, with the eligibility confirmation deadline possibly in December;
3. The Spanish Ministry of Economy and Digital Transformation announced that the EU Crypto Asset Markets Act (MiCA) will be implemented at the national level in December 2025. The deadline for all 27 EU member states to implement MiCA is July 2026;
4. US-listed Sonnet BioTherapeutics has postponed its merger vote to December 2nd. It plans to merge with Rorschach I LLC to form Hyperliquid Strategies and advance its HYPE reserve strategy;
5. Aztec's AZTEC token sale is scheduled for December 2nd-6th, 2025, powered by Uniswap's newly launched Continuous Liquidation Auction Protocol (CCA). CCA is a customizable protocol for launching liquidity and issuing tokens on Uniswap v4. Designed in partnership with Aztec, who provided a ZK Passport module for private and verifiable participation, the sale's starting price is set at a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $350 million, approximately 75% lower than the implied network valuation based on the latest equity financing.
Key Events
1. December 3: The US will release November ADP employment figures (in thousands);
2. December 4: The US will release initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 (in thousands);
3. December 5: The US will release the September core PCE price index year-on-year rate.
Token Unlocking
1. Audiera (BEAT) will unlock 21.25 million tokens on December 1st, worth approximately $20.26 million, representing 2.12% of the circulating supply;
2. Lagrange (LA) will unlock 12.7 million tokens on December 4th, worth approximately $5 million, representing 1.27% of the circulating supply;
3. MYX Finance (MYX) will unlock 30.37 million tokens on December 6th, worth approximately $77.5 million, representing 3.04% of the circulating supply;
4. Jito (JTO) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on December 7th, worth approximately $5.47 million, representing 1.13% of the circulating supply.