The information flow moves too quickly, causing in-depth analytical articles to be drowned out by trending topics. The "Weekly Editor’s Picks" column pulls out these valuable, insightful pieces from the flood of news, helping you filter out the noise and focus on meaningful perspectives and inspiration.
Macroeconomic situation
Since 2007, the U.S. Treasury market is sounding the alarm.
Amid the combined impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East, oil prices surging past the $100 mark, and resurgent inflation expectations, U.S. Treasury yields have risen across the board to multi-year highs, with the 30-year yield setting a new record for the longest continuous period at elevated levels since 2007, causing a sharp shift in market expectations regarding the Fed’s policy path.
The interest rate market is front-running other investors' expectations on policy and questioning whether a "hawkish hold" is sufficient to express dissatisfaction.
In the second half of 2026, commodities will enter the era of "high-frequency black swans."
Citi Research's tail risk scenarios include: the U.S.-Iran conflict escalating from a temporary shock into a prolonged, multi-year disruption; a scramble for hoarding critical minerals; gold first declining 15% to 20% before doubling; extreme El Niño weather disrupting agricultural markets; and an AI bubble bursting or sustained boom triggering bidirectional volatility. The magnitude of these price shocks is sufficient to render traditional supply-and-demand analytical frameworks ineffective.
How did this deleveraging wave in the Korean stock market occur?
Before June 23, the market had all the conditions necessary for a panic sell-off: two-times leveraged products on individual stocks further concentrated capital in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix; these two stocks had already approached "half of the KOSPI"; and regulators' statement on June 22 became a turning point in market sentiment.
Review of the deleveraging process: Phase 1: June 23 — Prices crashed first, while debt levels did not decline. Phase 2: June 24–25 — Forced liquidations and re-leveraging occurred simultaneously. Phase 3: June 26–30 — Foreign capital withdrew, retail investors stepped in, and risk began shifting to household sectors. Phase 4: July 1–3 — Global semiconductor trading reversed, and ETFs began systematically selling low and buying high. Phase 5: July 6–8 — “Good news no longer drove prices up”; market sentiment shifted from technical correction to concerns over profit sustainability. Phase 6: July 9–10 — Forced liquidation data rose significantly, with leverage risks spreading to the U.S. and Hong Kong. Phase 7: July 13–15 — Multiple selling pressures emerged simultaneously, followed by mechanical rebounds. Phase 8: July 16 — Simultaneous pressure from regulation, interest rates, and semiconductors marked the institutionalization of deleveraging.
In summary, it is a negative feedback loop caused by the combination of foreign capital rebalancing, retail investors using margin to buy the dip, daily rebalancing of single-stock leveraged ETFs, forced liquidations, reversed industry expectations, shifts in regulatory policy, and monetary tightening—essentially not a liquidity crunch or a major fundamental issue.
Investment and Entrepreneurship
Where will the next bull market take place? The answer lies in these two types of assets.
The next crypto bull market will center on the convergence of on-chain finance and traditional finance. The key drivers of future markets will revolve around stablecoins, asset tokenization, 24/7 trading, instant settlement, and the growth of institutional-grade decentralized finance (DeFi) into a multi-trillion-dollar ecosystem.
Two key players driving industry convergence in distinct directions: Hyperliquid (token HYPE) and Robinhood (stock HOOD).
The BTC bear who perfectly timed the top has closed their short position and gone long at 64,000.
Market sentiment is extremely pessimistic; retail investors are collectively waiting for the "four-year cycle low" at $40,000 to $50,000, yet some are choosing to act early, believing the bottom will arrive sooner.
Bitcoin is undergoing a structural transformation—tokenization pilots involving BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and others, the advancement of the CLARITY Act, and accelerating institutional capital inflows are all undermining the conditions for a deeper crash;
The crypto bear market has lasted nine months, while the stock market has just reached its peak, and crash funds may flow into the undervalued crypto market.
SpaceX faces historic stock lock-up expiration: $116 billion in shares enter circulation on August 6
What makes this lock-up expiration unique is that SpaceX did not follow the typical practice of unlocking all shares 180 days after the IPO; instead, it implemented a phased release schedule aimed at increasing the float while minimizing drastic impacts on market supply and demand.
Early investors face lucrative exit opportunities. Short sellers are pressing ahead, dampening sentiment in the IPO market.
Also recommended: “Five Historic Indicators Simultaneously Signal Bottom, Suggesting Bitcoin Bear Market Has Ended” “30% Premium: Decoding the Surge and Pitfalls of SK Hynix’s Cross-Market Arbitrage” “Google’s Earnings Are Impressive, But Why Isn’t Wall Street Buying In?”
AI
Kimi K3 has not been open-sourced, and overseas audiences are beginning to reassess Chinese AI.
After the release of Kimi K3, overseas discussions shifted from model capabilities to Yang Zhilin's return to China to start a business and the appeal of U.S. talent. Vinod Khosla pointed to U.S. immigration policy, while Russ Salakhutdinov noted that Yang Zhilin had opportunities to stay in the U.S. but chose to return to China to start a business.
The value of Kimi K3 does not lie in proving that China's AI has fully surpassed others, nor in demonstrating that the U.S. has lost the talent war. It brings to light a more realistic issue: open models, entrepreneurial ecosystems, and talent choices are reshaping the global benchmark for AI pricing.
TSMC plans to expand production in the U.S. by $265 billion; AI valuations are increasingly focused on cash flow.
TSMC's second-quarter results and full-year guidance reinforce demand for AI chips, with the full-year capital budget raised to $60 billion to $64 billion.
Market分歧 centers on U.S. manufacturing costs, 2-nanometer ramp-up, and long-term capital returns; strong demand does not equate to unpressured profit margins.
Will developing our own CXL undermine our DRAM business? Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron all abandon in-house CXL controller development.
Aggressively promoting its proprietary chips may cannibalize its most important revenue source—the generic DRAM module market. The division of labor within the CXL ecosystem is being reshaped, with memory manufacturers focusing solely on manufacturing, while design leadership shifts toward independent chip design companies. For capital markets, this not only benefits relevant chip design firms but also means that the three major memory manufacturers will not engage in new competition around complete CXL solutions in the short term; their core profit model will continue to revolve around traditional DIMM memory products.
Also recommended: "OpenAI's Darkest Week: Apple Sues, Oracle Downgrades, AI Price War"
Prediction markets
HIP-4 enables permissionless deployment—can Hyperliquid kill Polymarket?
HIP-4 will support permissionless deployment, just like HIP-3, with the same staking requirement of 500,000 HYPE, which will be locked for six months. HIP-4 deployers will be able to set fee splits of up to 50% on deployed markets—a feature that will first be available on the testnet before launching on mainnet.
Allowing users to independently create prediction market events somewhat mirrors the success of their own HIP-3; however, the high staking threshold for HIP-4 deployers may significantly reduce third-party competitors, and the timing has missed the World Cup.
Also recommended: “Data Review: How Much Profit Did the Prediction Market Gain from a Single World Cup?”
Policies and Stablecoins
The White House's concession removes ethical barriers—will the Clarity Act make it through before the recess?
The Trump administration has agreed to include an ethics provision in the Clarity Act (Digital Asset Market Structure Act), and the relevant text has now been submitted to select Republican senators. This development may clear the way for updates to the bill text (expected to be announced in the coming days) and subsequent Senate voting.
Meanwhile, Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the White House Digital Asset Advisory Council responsible for advancing the legislation, has confirmed that he will remain in his role to help see the bill through to its final stages.
However, the U.S. Congress typically enters its summer recess in mid-August, leaving only about a dozen working days for both parties to finalize the text and advance the bill for Senate consideration.
Also recommended: “The Revolving Door Exposed: Who Is Crafting the U.S. Stablecoin Bill for Tether?”
Airdrop Opportunities and Interaction Guide
Popular Interaction Collection | AllScale Points Tasks; Skew Waitlist Application (July 22)
New ecosystem
US stocks meme, Robinhood chain finally found its own grand narrative
Meme coins are driving trading on the Robinhood chain, and this could very well be the next big opportunity on the Robinhood chain.
Security
Close call! A contractor nearly compromised MetaMask.
MetaMask was embroiled in a security scandal after it was revealed that it had inadvertently hired a North Korean hacker. Internal records showed that this hacker was not involved in peripheral projects but had access to MetaMask’s core wallet code and participated in the development of the wallet’s fiat on-ramp and off-ramp features.
After a North Korean hacker had been working at the company for a month, ConsenSys’s internal security team detected anomalies. Once ConsenSys’s investigation confirmed that Tyler Knapp was, in fact, a North Korean hacker, the company immediately revoked all his internal access privileges and contacted law enforcement.
This security incident did not result in any loss of user assets or data.
Weekly Hot Topics Crash Course
Policies and Macroeconomic Markets
Trump: The U.S. federal government is expected to shut down in September;
The U.S. SEC has agreed to pay $150,000 to settle a lawsuit over the disclosure of Ethereum investigation records and will submit the remaining documents;
Trump's cryptocurrency interest controversy has dampened prospects for the CLARITY Act's passage this year;
South Korea tightens trading requirements for single-stock leveraged ETFs: Individual investors must have 30 million KRW in cash starting July 31;
South Korea plans to introduce an AI-based regulatory system for virtual assets, having reported over 30 cryptocurrency-related cases in two years to combat market manipulation;
The South Korean ETF market is seeing a rise in "concentrated" investment trends, with capital accelerating toward leading stocks;
Opinions and Voices
Serenity: SK Hynix ADR trades at a 25% premium over its Korean shares; conversion begins on July 29, potentially pressuring U.S. stock prices;
Dovey Wan: South Korea may be one of the clearest top indicators for global risk assets;
HSBC: The direct inflationary impact of AI is more likely to appear in South Korea;
South Korean stocks' correlation with the Nasdaq has approached its two-year high, becoming a global barometer for AI investment sentiment;
Citigroup: Upgrades China to Overweight, Tactical Downgrade of South Korea;
Jensen Huang: The chip industry needs to expand another 5 to 10 times; Chinese models benefit everyone;
SemiAnalysis: Kimi K3's KDA mechanism improves attention efficiency but requires more GPUs, HBM, DRAM, and network resources;
Hyperliquid Co-founder: The crypto industry struggles to attract top entrepreneurial talent;
Institutions, large corporations, and leading projects
Intel's Q2 earnings and guidance significantly exceeded expectations, driven by AI demand for the fastest growth in 15 years;
The Dark Side of the Moon, Kimi, is expected to list in Hong Kong as soon as within six months;
BlackRock’s South Korea ETF has allocated approximately 25% of its position to SK Hynix;
Kalshi has applied to the U.S. CFTC to launch a perpetual futures contract linked to gold;
Polymarket was exposed for approximately $200 million in bets over six months exhibiting characteristics of insider trading;
BitMEX will officially shut down on September 23, 2026;
Movement Labs has filed for bankruptcy; Movement Industrial and the foundation may become the biggest beneficiaries.
Data
Is Bitcoin selling pressure easing? Unrealized losses have dropped 56% from their peak, but demand recovery remains insufficient;
Over 66% of addresses are at a loss; large profits in the Polymarket World Cup champion market are concentrated among a few traders;
Security
The White House’s official teleprompter operator made over $100,000 by trading on insider information...
Access the "Weekly Editor's Picks" series here. See you next time!