Bitcoin’s last brush with a nonfarm payrolls report ended in a rally. Friday’s edition of the same report may not treat traders as kindly.
Back on July 2, June’s jobs data missed forecasts badly. The US economy added just 57,000 payrolls, far below the roughly 115,000 economists expected. Bitcoin jumped 4% to near $62,000 that day, then kept climbing toward $64,000 over the following weekend as traders bet the miss would keep the Federal Reserve from hiking rates.
Why This Time Looks Different
Friday’s July payrolls report carries a much higher bar. Economists expect payrolls to rise by roughly 85,000 to 88,000, nearly double June’s print, according to a Bloomberg survey of forecasters. Employers likely kept hiring at a steady pace in July even as geopolitical tension and elevated inflation weighed on the broader outlook.
A beat would argue against any rate cut. Fed officials have already floated another hike, and three policymakers dissented in favor of one at last week’s meeting. That combination puts more weight on Friday’s print than markets have placed on a single jobs report in months.
Bitcoin has already felt that pressure. The asset slipped roughly 3% on July 31 and traded near $63,080. Thirty-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since 2007 that same week, a sign bond markets are pricing in tighter policy, not easier.
What Would Change the Outcome
The mechanism cuts both ways. A weak print, like June’s, would revive rate-cut bets and likely lift Bitcoin the way it did last time. That June report added just 57,000 jobs versus forecasts near 110,000, and Bitcoin rose as rate-cut bets built back up.
A hot print would harden the case for a hike, and strong wage growth would only add to that pressure. Average hourly earnings carry extra weight this cycle, since persistent wage growth feeds the inflation the Fed is still fighting.
Friday’s report, due August 7, lands five weeks before the Fed’s September 16 meeting. That gives policymakers time to weigh it alongside the August 12 inflation data before they decide.
Friday’s data, more than any headline this week, will likely decide which direction that base case breaks.