Wall Street sees a 58.4% chance of the Fed raising rates in September amid strong job data.

Huo Xing Finance reports that on September 7, following strong U.S. August employment data, Wall Street’s expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have intensified. CME FedWatch data shows the market currently assigns a 58.4% probability to the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% at the September FOMC meeting. Data revealed that non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, and market concerns persist that supply shocks—including the Middle East situation, rising oil prices, and tariffs—could continue to push inflation higher. Institutions such as Macquarie, Bank of America, and UBS have all raised their expectations for further rate hikes. On the other hand, the Trump administration continues to pressure the Fed to cut rates. Trump recently stated that the Fed should lower interest rates, arguing that high rates are putting the U.S. at a disadvantage; Vice President Vance also noted that lowering rates would help improve housing affordability. As markets shift toward betting on a rate hike, the Fed under Powell faces dual pressure from the White House and evolving market expectations.