Wall Street just lowered its price forecasts for Coinbase stock. The exchange missed earnings expectations for the third quarter in a row. Almost no analyst changed their advice, though. Most still say buy.
A price target is where an analyst expects a stock to trade in 12 months. Several firms cut theirs this week. Their ratings stayed exactly where they were.
What Went Wrong in the Quarter
Coinbase lost $359.5 million in the three months to June 30. That works out to $1.36 per share. Analysts had penciled in a loss of just 17 cents. So the gap was wide. Revenue reached $1.22 billion. Analysts wanted about $1.29 billion. A year earlier the figure was $1.5 billion.
The damage started with trading. Customers traded 24% less than in the first quarter, Citizens said. Price swings were the smallest in years, so fewer people bought or sold. COIN shares then slid to a third straight quarterly loss.
Subscriptions did not rescue the quarter either. That unit brought in $555 million, below the $594 million analysts wanted.
Targets Dropped. Ratings Did Not.
Benchmark cut its target to $230 from $270. It kept a Buy rating anyway. Needham moved to $177. Rosenblatt moved to $200. Baird moved to $130. All three called the slump temporary rather than permanent.
Mizuho landed at $155 and stayed neutral. Barclays was the one loud bear. It rates the stock Underweight, which means sell, and set a $95 target.
Two firms did not flinch. Bernstein kept its $330 target. Citizens kept $325. Citizens gave a simple reason. Coinbase spent less than it had promised to spend. Job cuts made in May started to pay off.
The pattern began before the results landed. Citi slashed its target by 41% last week and still told clients to buy.
Why the Bulls are Still Buying
The bulls are not betting on trading fees. They are betting on everything else.
Coinbase handled a record 10.3% of all crypto trading. Its prediction market revenue doubled in three months. Paid Coinbase One memberships hit an all-time high.
The company now sells perpetual futures and stocks too. It calls the plan an “everything exchange.”
One piece is running late. Citizens said new USD Coin (USDC) features arrived later than planned. Banks have also flagged pressure on USDC economics.
Circle’s leadership argues that stablecoins outgrow crypto trading as payments spread. Coinbase needs that to happen quickly.
COIN traded near $151.24 on Friday, down 2.41%. The average analyst target sits near $229.74. That gap is a lot of faith.