ChainThink reports that on August 17, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) declined to 14.2, reaching its lowest level since 2026;
The S&P 500 index has risen approximately 16% year-to-date, equity funds have recorded net inflows for 12 consecutive weeks, and U.S. stocks have risen for three straight weeks, repeatedly hitting new all-time highs.
Jonathan Krinsky, Chief Market Technologist at BTIG, said that since October last year, the market has not experienced an extreme single-day sell-off where 80% of declining stocks accounted for volume—a level that historically averages 21 occurrences per year and has never been fewer than five in any given year.
Susquehanna said current volatility has seen a "substantial" decline, but the two-month implied volatility has slightly rebounded to 13.5%.
IG Chief Technical Analyst Axel Rudolph noted that overall volatility continues to decline amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, while July retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6%, indicating rising consumer financial pressure.
Wall Street institutions generally view mid-August to mid-October as a period of historic market volatility.
BTIG statistics show that since 1990, the equal-weight S&P 500 Index has, in every midterm election year, declined by at least 7% from its approximate August 18 peak to mid-October.
Krinsky recommends that investors reduce their risk exposure or hedge their broad-market stock positions.