BlockBeats news, on October 2, the U.S. will release the September non-farm payrolls report at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday. According to the latest Reuters survey, U.S. non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 90,000 in September, significantly lower than the 162,000 increase in August, with the unemployment rate forecast to remain at 4.1% for the third consecutive month. Following the Fed’s first interest rate hike in three years in September, this report will be a key indicator for assessing whether the labor market remains resilient and whether another rate hike is warranted in October.
The market is not only focused on new job additions. Although August’s employment data came in stronger than expected, some economists believe this may have been influenced by seasonal adjustments, and the August increase could be revised downward when September’s data is released.
Before the September non-farm payrolls release, market expectations for another Fed rate hike in October had declined significantly. As of Thursday, the probability priced in by markets for a rate hike at the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting was approximately 28%, down from nearly 69% a week earlier. Therefore, the most critical information in tonight’s employment report is not just whether non-farm payrolls meet the market expectation of 90,000. Whether the unemployment rate can remain at 4.1%, if wage growth accelerates again, and whether August’s strong increase of 162,000 jobs will be significantly revised downward, will collectively shape market assessments of the resilience of the U.S. labor market and the likely pace of the Fed’s next policy moves.