Anyone who bought long US government bonds 10 years ago has lost money. Not after inflation. Before it. In 223 years of records, that has happened only once before.
Long Treasury bonds lost roughly 2% a year over the decade to August 2026, Bank of America data shows. The last stretch this bad ended in 1803, when Washington borrowed to buy Louisiana.
The Safest Trade in the World Just Broke
The math is such that bond pays a fixed coupon. Nothing more. On this day in 2016, the 30-year Treasury paid 2.32%, according to Treasury Department records. That was the whole prize.
Then inflation arrived, the Federal Reserve hiked, and yields climbed. Prices fell far enough to swallow the coupon.
The record starts in 1793 and holds 2,771 monthly readings, compiled by Santa Clara University finance professor Edward McQuarrie. Negative 10-year returns appear in 25 of those months. Bianco Research counts 24 of them in the current run.
“Bonds WERE the worst investment in American history. It says nothing about what they do next,” wrote Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research.
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Bitcoin Now Has a Rival It Never Had
The starting yield is the tell, as it has set most of the following decade’s return across this data, by Bianco Research’s reading. Buy at 2% and you earn about 2%. Buy at 5.25% and history points near 5%.
That is the part Bitcoin has never faced. The Fed cut rates to near zero on December 16, 2008. Bitcoin’s first block arrived 18 days later.
Cheap money was the water it swam in. Now the 10-year Treasury yields 4.80% and the 30-year pays 5.25%, both as of Tuesday.
Bitcoin pays nothing. It trades near $77,934, down about 2% and well below its 2025 record. BeInCrypto flagged the squeeze last week, when global bond yields hit levels last seen in 2008.
The Uncomfortable Part
The twist is that the wreckage that makes bonds attractive is the same wreckage Bitcoin buyers cite.
Yields are high because Washington borrows on a scale that unsettles lenders. Federal debt hit $40.1 trillion on September 3, Treasury figures show, and the $40 trillion debt pile grows with every auction. Oil above $100 keeps inflation sticky.
The money is not leaving either. US spot Bitcoin funds pulled in $987.7 million in the week to September 4, Farside data shows, and Bitcoin ETF inflows beat every rival crypto fund. Polymarket traders price a September rate hike at 52%.
Bitcoin was easy to hold when cash paid nothing. The question now is whether it can beat 5% a year for a decade. Friday’s inflation data starts the answer.