Two of the world’s largest economies are playing tug-of-war with the global copper supply. Stockpiles on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have cratered 82% since early May, falling to roughly 69,000 tonnes by late July, the lowest level in about two and a half years.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the Pacific, COMEX inventories in the US have ballooned past 650,000 tonnes, a record, surging more than 40% year-to-date. The metal hasn’t disappeared. It’s just moved.
A tale of two stockpiles
London Metal Exchange stocks have dropped 28% over the same period that COMEX warehouses have been filling up. US buyers have been stockpiling ahead of potential tariffs on refined copper imports, creating a dynamic where American importers are pulling metal westward while Chinese buyers scramble to secure what’s left everywhere else.
In China, the domestic spot premium climbed to 435 yuan, roughly $61 per tonne, by mid-July, the highest it has been since May 2025. The Yangshan import premium hit $103 per tonne during the same window.
COMEX copper has been trading near $6.55 per pound, with LME hovering around $13,850 per tonne.
Why both countries want so much copper
China’s hunger for the red metal is being driven by AI infrastructure buildouts, broader electrification efforts, and power grid upgrades. The US side of the equation is more defensive: anticipation of tariffs on refined copper imports has turned COMEX warehouses into strategic reserves, with buyers hoarding metal before the cost of importing goes up.
Supply side isn’t helping
Major production disruptions have hit operations in Chile and Indonesia, two of the world’s most important copper-producing nations. The Democratic Republic of Congo has added another layer of complexity by banning copper concentrate exports, further tightening an already constrained picture.
What to watch from here
The trajectory of US tariff policy on refined copper will be the single most important variable in determining whether this geographic redistribution becomes permanent or reverses. When the Yangshan premium hits $103 per tonne, it signals that Chinese importers are absorbing significant additional costs to secure physical metal. Mining disruptions in Chile, Indonesia, and the DRC add a structural dimension, as restoring lost mine output takes time measured in years, not quarters.