BlockBeats report: On July 20, according to data from Kobeissi Letter, the latest auction yield for the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond rose to 5.06%, the highest level since 2007, pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields back above 5%. For comparison, the yield on similar-term Treasuries at the beginning of 2022 was approximately 2%.
Analysis suggests that rising long-term yields indicate an increase in the risk-free rate, which raises the discount rate for risky assets and imposes structural pressure on high-risk assets like Bitcoin. Currently, risk-free yields above 5% have raised the entry barrier for speculative capital, while rising debt financing costs resulting from expanding fiscal deficits have also sent risk-aversion signals to the market in the short term.
In addition, the surge in investment in AI infrastructure is intensifying competition for capital. Major tech companies continue to issue bonds to finance AI development, competing with the U.S. government for market funds and further pushing up long-term interest rates. The market is closely watching the 5.20% peak reached in May; if yields break above this level, it could signal that long-term interest rates will continue to rise, leading to further tightening of financial conditions.