UN warns that the current El Niño may be the strongest on record, with impacts potentially lasting beyond 2027.

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1. AAFC slightly lowered its forecast for Canadian canola ending stocks for the 2026/27 season.

2. Iran says seven vessels in the strait have been attacked, warning the U.S. may face a larger response.

3. The United Nations has issued a warning that this El Niño event may reach record intensity, with impacts potentially lasting beyond 2027.

4. The Kapuas River water level is low, hindering palm oil shipments in Indonesia.

5. The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide is 71.028 million standard boxes, a decrease of 1.07% month-over-month.

6. Guangzhou Futures Exchange issues a market risk advisory.

1. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued management measures for overseas investment. It states that the scope of filing management covers non-sensitive overseas investments directly conducted by investors, namely non-sensitive overseas investments involving direct investment of assets or equity, or provision of financing or guarantees by investors. For overseas investments within the scope of filing management, investors must obtain an overseas investment filing notice prior to implementing the investment.

2. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy stated that four vessels engaged in illegal oil transfers in the northern Persian Gulf were simultaneously attacked and caught fire after being tracked by its forces. The Revolutionary Guard also reported that three additional vessels struck mines west of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard warned U.S. forces that continued provocations could trigger a larger-scale response against its regional bases.

3. The United Nations has issued a warning that this El Niño event is expected to peak in December this year, and the extreme heat, flooding, and drought it triggers will impact human society through 2027 and beyond.

4. The U.S. Department of Labor said on Thursday that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 6,000 to 194,000 for the week ending October 17, seasonally adjusted. This figure is nearing the 189,000 level reached in mid-July, the lowest since 1969.

5. U.S. President Trump: (Regarding Iran) We have already hit them hard and may go even further.

6. On the evening of the 22nd local time, Russian President Putin stated in an interview with the media that Russia is still willing to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict through dialogue.

7. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei: “Let us not obscure the truth with misleading euphemisms. There is no such thing as an ‘Iran conflict’—this is an illegal war of aggression launched by the United States and Israel against Iran.”

1. At the close of the Thursday night session, domestic futures main contracts saw more gains than losses: Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU) rose over 3%, Fuel Oil and Propylene rose over 2%, Soybean No.1 rose nearly 2%, while Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Polypropylene, Synthetic Rubber, and Metallurgical Coal rose over 1%. On the downside, Silver SH fell nearly 4%, Gold SH fell nearly 2%, Caustic Soda and Offset Paper fell over 1%, and Wood Pulp fell nearly 1%.

2. U.S. crude oil futures rose 2.01% to close at $99.10 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures rose 3.77% to close at $112.92 per barrel.

3. International precious metals futures generally closed lower; COMEX gold futures fell 2.66% to $4,039.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures dropped 5.34% to $54.63 per ounce.

4. All base metals in London fell: LME lead dropped 0.50% to $1,900.0 per ton, LME aluminum fell 1.17% to $3,006.0 per ton, LME nickel declined 1.47% to $15,995.0 per ton, LME copper dropped 1.80% to $14,098.0 per ton, LME zinc fell 2.24% to $3,671.0 per ton, and LME tin declined 2.44% to $50,000.0 per ton.

5. International agricultural futures closed mixed: U.S. soybeans rose 0.56%, U.S. corn fell 0.65%, U.S. soybean oil rose 1.15%, U.S. soybean meal fell 0.26%, and U.S. wheat fell 0.56%.

1. According to Mysteel, for the week ending October 22, rebar production was 1.7473 million tons, an increase of 0.0084 million tons (+0.48%) from the previous week; rebar mill inventories stood at 1.5234 million tons, a decrease of 0.0584 million tons (-3.69%) from the previous week; rebar social inventories were 3.6982 million tons, a decrease of 0.2046 million tons (-5.24%) from the previous week; rebar apparent demand was 2.0103 million tons, a decrease of 0.2124 million tons (-9.56%) from the previous week.

2. According to Mysteel, the capacity utilization rate for 523 coking coal mines this week was 72.5%, up 1.1%环比. The daily average raw coal output was 1.633 million tons, up 26,000 tons环比.

3. This week, Mysteel’s Coal and Coke Division surveyed the profit per ton of coke at independent coking plants nationwide, with an average national profit of -45 RMB/ton; the average profit for secondary-grade coke in Shanxi was -30 RMB/ton, for secondary-grade coke in Shandong it was -5 RMB/ton, for metallurgical coke in Inner Mongolia it was -52 RMB/ton, and for secondary-grade coke in Hebei it was 18 RMB/ton.

1. According to Longzhong Information, based on its production cost calculation model for this week, the weekly average profit for float glass fueled by natural gas is -147.60 RMB/ton, down 1.43 RMB/ton week-over-week; for coal-fueled float glass, the weekly average profit is -167.41 RMB/ton, down 2.33 RMB/ton week-over-week; for petroleum coke-fueled float glass, the weekly average profit is -174.83 RMB/ton, down 5.71 RMB/ton week-over-week.

2. As of October 22, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 71.028 million standard boxes, down 765,000 standard boxes环比, or -1.07%环比, and up 6.63%同比. The inventory days equivalent stood at 32.4 days, down 0.6 days from the previous period. The daily production of float glass nationwide was 1.432 million tons, up 0.03% from October 15. The weekly national float glass production was 1.0022 million tons, up 0.44%环比, and down 11%同比.

3. As of October 22, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash producers was 1.471 million tons, a decrease of 68,600 tons from Monday, a decline of 4.46%; production was 606,400 tons, an increase of 800 tons week-over-week, a rise of 0.14%; the comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 64.68%, compared to 64.59% last week, an increase of 0.09 percentage points.

4. As of October 22, 2026, the port inventory of urea in China stood at 6.952 million metric tons, an increase of 1.168 million metric tons环比, or 20.19%.

5. According to data from Singapore’s Enterprise Singapore (ESG), as of the week ending October 21, Singapore’s fuel oil inventories rose by 8.15 million barrels to a four-week high of 18.858 million barrels. Light distillate inventories fell by 28.35 million barrels to a three-week low of 10.971 million barrels. Middle distillate inventories declined by 20.72 million barrels to a four-week low of 8.305 million barrels.

6. According to the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announcement, starting from the settlement on October 26, 2026, the trading margin requirement for PTA futures contracts 2612 and 2701 will be adjusted to 9%, and the daily price limit will be adjusted to 8%; the trading margin requirement for methanol futures contracts 2612 and 2701 will be adjusted to 9%, and the daily price limit will be adjusted to 8%; the trading margin requirement for PX futures contracts 2612 and 2701 will be adjusted to 9%, and the daily price limit will be adjusted to 8%.

7. U.S. President Trump's latest post: "Iran is doing everything it can to drive up oil prices before the U.S. midterm elections. They are even fabricating false attacks, mine-laying, and other incidents, as the amount of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz is now higher than before the conflict broke out. This is truly an evil regime, and I only hope the American people and the entire world can recognize just how evil they are!"

8. According to the EIA report, as of the week ending October 16, the total U.S. natural gas inventory stood at 3,644 billion cubic feet, an increase of 77 billion cubic feet from the previous week, down 4.0% year-over-year.

1. According to Aladdin (ALD) statistics based on shipping data, bauxite shipments from Guinea last week totaled approximately 3.77 million tons, compared to an average of about 3.39 million tons per week over the previous four weeks and an average of about 3.63 million tons per week since September.

2. According to SMM, a lead recycling smelter in southwestern China halted operations yesterday for equipment maintenance, temporarily suspending production, with an expected resumption in 4 to 5 days.

3. According to Mysteel’s port-based survey, as of this week (October 22), the physical inventory of lithium ore at domestic ports stood at 392,000 metric tons, an increase of 45,000 metric tons week-over-week. Among this, the inventory at Zhenjiang Port reached 282,000 metric tons, up by 60,000 metric tons week-over-week. Due to a significant price decline, lithium salt manufacturers have adopted a pessimistic outlook on future prices and have become cautious in their purchasing, limiting buys to only immediate needs. Meanwhile, arrivals of lithium ore at ports remain active, leading to a continued buildup of inventory at the ports.

4. According to the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announcement, the price of lithium carbonate has recently experienced significant volatility. All member units are urged to strengthen investor education and risk prevention efforts, reminding investors to participate rationally and trade in compliance, jointly maintaining the stable operation of the market.

5. Copper inventories at LME warehouses in the United States have risen to their highest level in 12 and a half years, as metal continues to flow into the U.S. ahead of potential copper import tariffs being imposed in early next year. LME U.S. warehouse inventories—primarily located in New Orleans and Baltimore—currently stand at 169,475 metric tons, the highest level since April 2014, accounting for approximately 62% of the exchange’s total copper inventory, the highest share since March 2019.

6. According to an announcement from the Yichun Municipal Ecological Environment Bureau, in accordance with the relevant procedures for environmental impact assessment approval of construction projects, after review, our bureau intends to issue an approval opinion on the Environmental Impact Report for the Liumin Mining Project in Zhenkouli, Yifeng County, and Jianxiawo, Fengxin County, by Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. (Details)

7. According to data released by Guinea’s National Statistics Office, in August 2026, Guinea exported 15,069,218.8 tons of bauxite and 28,059.3 tons of alumina.

8. According to data released by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), global refined zinc supply exceeded demand by a total of 96,000 tons from January to August 2026, compared with a surplus of 133,000 tons during the same period last year; global refined lead supply exceeded demand by a total of 37,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 17,000 tons during the same period last year.

9. Rio Tinto will invest $1.9 billion to expand its bauxite mining operations in northern Australia. The project is scheduled to begin production in 2029, increasing Rio Tinto’s annual production capacity in northern Queensland from 38 million to 44 million tons.

1. Increased production in the new season, combined with weak consumption, continues to pressure apple futures prices.

Hengyin Futures stated that, in the short term, under the dual pressure of increased production realization and weak consumption, apple futures prices are likely to continue in a weak oscillating pattern, though a technical rebound cannot be ruled out after consecutive sharp declines; however, the rebound height is expected to be limited. Key areas to monitor in the coming period include: first, the actual opening price and price trend after the Shandong production area begins listing; second, the progress and total volume of cold storage inflows in November, which directly determine the effective supply for the January contract; third, the final realization of premium fruit rate and commercial fruit rate—if the proportion of high-quality fruit falls short of expectations, it may create a temporary expectation gap. Additionally, export pace and weather disruptions in production areas should be tracked. Overall, the bumper harvest trend in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the downward shift in the futures price center is clear; the overall stance should remain bearish, while remaining alert to potential farmer withholding behavior and short-term recovery opportunities triggered by low prices.

2. Caustic soda hits a new low—where is the bottom?

China Everbright Futures stated that the weekly average gross profit for chlor-alkali enterprises in Shandong is RMB 134 per ton, continuing to decline on a环比 basis. It may sound like they're still profitable, but note that this is the integrated profit for chlor-alkali production, not the profit for caustic soda alone. Caustic soda and liquid chlorine are co-produced: for every ton of caustic soda produced, 0.886 tons of liquid chlorine are also generated. Companies calculate their profitability based on the combined profit of “caustic soda + liquid chlorine.” As long as liquid chlorine can still be sold at a price, the integrated profit remains near the break-even point, and companies have no incentive to reduce production. Looking at current caustic soda inventories, they are more than 30% higher year-over-year, indicating that even previous maintenance-related production cuts have failed to stabilize inventories, let alone reduce them. Therefore, the bottom for caustic soda may not lie solely in demand—but more likely in the price of liquid chlorine. Only when liquid chlorine prices can no longer sustain themselves and companies truly shut down operations will supply clearance truly begin. Until then, any rebound may not signify a genuine reversal.