UBS Raises DRAM Price Forecast, Predicts Shortage to Last Until 2028

Huo Xing Finance reports that on July 3, UBS stated that, based on industry research, it has raised its DDR contract price baseline expectations to a 32% quarter-over-quarter increase in Q3 2026 and an 18% quarter-over-quarter increase in Q4 2026, up from previous forecasts of 17% and 12%, respectively. UBS continues to expect the DRAM industry to remain in a supply-demand imbalance until at least 2028. By 2027, the gap between DRAM demand growth and supply growth is projected to widen to 17%. Assuming no inventory digestion by downstream customers in 2027—that is, inventory levels remain ample after restocking in the second half of 2026—the supply shortage ratio could worsen from 8.1% in 2026 to 13.6% in 2027. UBS noted that both levels are unprecedented in the past 30 years. Regarding NAND, UBS currently forecasts a 30% quarter-over-quarter price increase in Q3 2026 and a 12% quarter-over-quarter increase in Q4 2026, and expects the NAND upward cycle to last at least until Q4 2027. UBS has also raised its memory industry revenue forecast to $992 billion in 2026 and $1.763 trillion in 2027. The primary risk lies in the affordability of hyperscale cloud service providers, particularly as they continue to rely on capital markets to finance their capital expenditures.