BlockBeats news: On July 24, influenced by both macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions, U.S. Treasury yields have risen significantly recently. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to approximately 4.69%, reaching its highest level since January 2025 and a rare level since Trump's second term began.
In previous trade disputes or geopolitical events, Trump often backed down when yields surged, softening policies through delays or exemptions to calm markets. Investors have dubbed this pattern "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out).
However, it remains to be seen whether Trump will repeat the TACO scenario this time.
On one hand, the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office (USTR) announced on July 23 local time that it would impose tariffs of 10%–12.5% on 60 economies. On the other hand, the primary driver of current yield increases is geopolitical conflict; even if Trump were willing to make concessions, Iran’s hardline stance may not respond favorably. Additionally, with the midterm elections approaching, Trump needs to maintain a strongman image in foreign policy to project a “winner” persona to domestic voters. As a result, he has lost the initiative on Iran, and TACO’s operational space is constrained by domestic electoral dynamics.
In summary, under the backdrop of domestic and international challenges, how Trump will adjust his policies remains worth monitoring in the coming period.