U.S. Treasury Secretary Says Deal With Iran on Strait Could Be Reached on Wednesday

Review today's market trends and stay on top of market dynamics. Good morning, listeners. Today is Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Rush. Futures Morning Rush — the top choice for millions of futures professionals!

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1. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated that progress has been made in negotiations with Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. No final outcome has been reached on the strait issue, but there is hope that an agreement will be reached soon.

2. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said in an interview with CNBC that we may reach an agreement with Iran on Wednesday to open the Strait of Hormuz. He added that an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz could be reached on Tuesday or Wednesday.

3. The U.S. government is seeking public comment in the Federal Register on expanding the scope of metal tariffs. The U.S. proposes imposing tariffs on products such as welders and cranes.

4. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, on July 30, the Ministry held a symposium on the photovoltaic industry to further interpret and promote the mandatory national standard for photovoltaic modules.

5. The union representing BHP's Port Hedland operations in Western Australia has not yet reached a pay agreement with the company.

1. According to CCTV News, the China Meteorological Administration held a press conference, at which a representative from the National Climate Center stated that latest monitoring data shows the El Niño condition will continue to strengthen from June to July 2026. Under the backdrop of a strong to extreme El Niño event, China is expected to experience above-average rainfall, heatwaves, and typhoons in August.

2. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bentsen said in an interview with CNBC that we may reach an agreement with Iran on August 5 to open the Strait of Hormuz.

3. The central bank announced the liquidity operations for July 2026: for central bank lending facilities, the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) net withdrew 10 billion yuan; the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) net injected 100 billion yuan; the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) net withdrew 116.1 billion yuan; for open market operations, the 7-day reverse repurchase agreements net injected 249.5 billion yuan, and net purchases of government bonds injected 50 billion yuan; central treasury cash management net injected 30 billion yuan.

4. According to Reuters, senior Iranian sources have revealed that during discussions with Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran and Oman have reached a temporary agreement that could grant Iran full control over all incoming shipping.

5. On Tuesday, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari said efforts are currently underway to seek a diplomatic resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict. He noted that mediators, including Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman, are closely coordinating to encourage both sides to engage in negotiations and exchange draft proposals.

6. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated that progress has been made in negotiations with Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. While no final outcome has been reached on the strait issue, there is hope that an agreement will be reached soon.

7. According to the UK's Daily Telegraph, Iran is considering charging European countries for maintaining the strategic waterway under a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

1. International precious metals futures generally closed higher; COMEX gold futures rose 1.07% to $4,134.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.27% to $59.75 per ounce.

2. The front-month U.S. crude oil contract closed down 6.47% at $75.14 per barrel; the front-month Brent crude oil contract fell 6.08% to $78.68 per barrel.

3. Most base metals in London rose, with LME copper up 1.25% at $14,043.5 per ton, LME lead up 1.23% at $1,890.0 per ton, LME tin up 0.69% at $55,830.0 per ton, LME zinc up 0.55% at $3,661.0 per ton, LME nickel up 0.53% at $17,150.0 per ton, and LME aluminum down 0.12% at $3,217.5 per ton.

1. According to Mysteel satellite data, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil from July 27 to August 2, 2026, amounted to 13.801 million metric tons, a decrease of 602,000 metric tons month-over-month; port inventories continue to decline and remain slightly above the yearly average.

2. On Tuesday, a union spokesperson said that the union representing BHP’s operations at Port Hedland, the world’s largest iron ore export hub in Western Australia, has not reached a pay agreement with the company, making a two-day strike at the port this weekend inevitable. The union stated that the labor action will proceed as planned on August 8 (this Saturday) and August 9 (this Sunday). However, the strike targeting BHP’s operations is not expected to affect other companies operating at Port Hedland.

3. According to Mysteel, Hebei Iron & Steel’s August tender for Ferrosilicon 75B was 2,740 tons, down 640 tons from the previous tender of 3,380 tons. Hebei Iron & Steel Group’s August procurement of Ferromanganese is 16,600 tons, compared to 15,400 tons in July.

4. According to Ferroalloy Online, Sichuan and Yunnan are currently in their high-water season. Based on historical production data, the number of operational furnaces in these major silicon metal producing regions typically rises to around 150–180 during the high-water season; however, this year, only about 70 furnaces are operating. Output from Sichuan and Yunnan has been gradually decreasing, and their share of total national production is declining.

5. According to Mysteel, on August 4, the price of coking coal in Changzhi remained stable. Qinyuan County added 1.2 million tons of new low-sulfur lean coal capacity, but supply remains tight due to temporary mine shutdowns. Downstream coke producers, operating at a loss, have weak demand, while steel inventory buildup and declining pig iron output further dampen demand for both coke and coking coal, leading to expectations of a third round of coke price cuts.

1. Sources say Syria has agreed to significantly cut its imports of Russian oil in exchange for the United States lifting its designation of Syria as a “state sponsor of terrorism.” This move would mark a major shift away from Syria’s dependence on Russian crude and could weaken Moscow’s influence in Syria.

2. According to informed sources, Saudi Arabia aims to use behind-the-scenes diplomacy to contain the new round of conflict with the Houthi rebels, avoiding any clash with this Iran-backed group that could impact its oil industry and economy.

1. According to SMM, on August 4, Global Lithium announced that its Manna lithium project in Western Australia has received approval from the Western Australian Department of Mines, Petroleum, and Exploration for its Mine Development and Closure Plan, with first shipments of direct-shipping ore (DSO) scheduled for the second quarter of 2027.

2. Indonesia’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Bahlil Lahadalia, stated that coal companies paying higher royalties to the state are expected to receive priority under the government’s proposed relaxation of the coal RKAB policy.

3. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, on July 30, the Ministry held a symposium on the photovoltaic industry to further interpret and promote the mandatory national standard for photovoltaic modules.

4. On August 4, China Nonferrous Metals Corporation announced that it recently received a notice from the Shaoguan Emergency Management Bureau titled "Notice to Order the Fan Kou Lead-Zinc Mine to Cease Operations." The notice requires the Fan Kou Lead-Zinc Mine to immediately halt operations and conduct a comprehensive safety inspection; production may only resume after all identified issues have been rectified and verified by the emergency management authority. The Fan Kou Lead-Zinc Mine has now ceased operations in accordance with the notice.

5. On August 4, Tianhua New Energy stated on the interactive platform that, to ensure the safe and stable operation of production equipment and comprehensively eliminate potential equipment failures, its subsidiary Sichuan Tianhua will conduct routine maintenance on its 60,000-ton-per-year battery-grade lithium hydroxide production line (flexibly capable of producing 53,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate) for approximately one month in August, in accordance with its annual maintenance plan.

6. The U.S. government is seeking public comment in the Federal Register on expanding the scope of metal tariffs. The U.S. proposes imposing tariffs on products such as welders and cranes.

7. According to the London Metal Exchange (LME) position report, as of the week ending July 31, 2026, investment funds held a net long position of 40,700 contracts in LME copper, an increase of 2,682 contracts from the previous week; a net long position of 129,800 contracts in LME aluminum, an increase of 698 contracts from the previous week; and a net long position of 49,000 contracts in LME zinc, an increase of 436 contracts from the previous week.

1. Keep an eye on the weather! How do agricultural products face the "weather test"?

Yide Futures noted that recent precipitation in the United States has increased compared to earlier periods, continuing to improve weather conditions in the Corn Belt of the central and eastern regions, but drought recovery remains relatively limited in the Northern Plains and Western Corn Belt. As crops enter the critical stage for yield formation, the focus of weather monitoring has shifted from pollination risks to yield verification; continued close attention is needed on the evolution of drought in the Western Corn Belt and the potential impact of precipitation changes in mid-August on final yield outcomes. Although precipitation is expected to increase over the next two weeks, it will be concentrated primarily in northern Malaysia and Indonesia, offering limited improvement for core drought-affected areas such as central and southern Borneo and southern Sumatra, making it difficult for soil moisture conditions to recover significantly in the short term. Over the medium to long term, as El Niño continues to develop and combines with the influence of the traditional dry season, the risk of drier conditions in Indonesia’s main producing regions will continue to accumulate; the market must continuously monitor changes in soil moisture and their potential impact on palm oil production in the second half of the year.

2. The dual-coking market has undergone technical correction, with the market now anticipating three rounds of price reductions for metallurgical coal spot prices.

Sanli Futures stated that, on the supply side, according to institutional research, recent continuous rainfall caused a fault in a substation line in Liulin County, Lüliang City, resulting in the temporary shutdown of seven coal mines, with an estimated downtime of around four days. In the short term, the slow pace of resumption at major production sites continues to provide some price support. However, it should be noted that the logic of seasonal weakness in downstream demand and insufficient demand still holds, with no significant changes in the underlying fundamentals. The spot market strongly anticipates a third round of coking coal price cuts. Although coking coal and coke have experienced a short-term rebound from overselling, upside potential remains limited, as weak demand is expected to continue suppressing prices.

1. August 5, 22:30: EIA Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending July 31 in the United States;

2. August 6, 20:30, USDA Agricultural Export Sales Report for the week ending July 30 in the United States;

3. At 20:30 on August 6, the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1.