BlockBeats report, October 8: The issue facing U.S. long-term interest rates is no longer just about Fed policy expectations, but whether the Treasury’s own debt management tools can actually alter market pricing. Bessent increased the repurchase cap for 10- to 30-year Treasuries to $6 billion, originally intended to improve liquidity for older issues; yet the 10-year yield still rose to 5.35%, and the 30-year yield neared 5.7%, even surpassing levels before the repurchase expansion in August. When policy tools are expanded yet fail to lower long-term yields, the market naturally reassesses: the true drivers of higher yields may still be massive supply, fiscal deficits, and investors demanding higher term premiums.
This is also key to Warren’s critique of the Treasury’s “chaotic intervention.” The fact that actual repurchase volumes fall below the cap indicates that the Treasury is not providing unconditional support; using TGA cash or short-term debt financing to fund repurchases merely adjusts the maturity structure without eliminating the government’s overall funding needs. In other words, policy may improve market microstructure, but it does not necessarily absorb the long-term interest rate pressures caused by fiscal expansion.
Rising long-term bond yields are also reshaping asset comparisons. Bank of America’s model suggests that the S&P 500’s expected return over the next decade may fall below 5%, while U.S. Treasuries now offer more attractive starting yields; gold falling below $4,100 indicates that safe-haven demand may not be sufficient to offset holding costs when the dollar and real rates rise in tandem. For BTC, the daily chart remains in a high-range consolidation, currently around $83,487, with liquidity near $87,000 above and a key support zone at $82,929 below; if this level is breached, the subsequent structural demand zones lie between $76,000–$80,000 and $70,000–$73,000.
Therefore, what truly matters to watch next is not how much the Treasury can repurchase, but whether long-term yields can stabilize on their own amid high supply. If 10- and 30-year rates continue to rise, they will gradually increase the opportunity cost for stocks, gold, and crypto assets; conversely, if elevated yields begin to dampen economic activity and capital spending, bonds may regain room for price recovery. The market is currently testing whether U.S. fiscal policy can truly control long-term funding costs.