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Geopolitical easing signals and weak employment data converge, providing relief to risk assets.
U.S. stock indices closed higher overnight, ending a three-day losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.56%, the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.45%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.46%.
The market recovery was primarily driven by two key factors: first, unexpectedly cooler employment data—the ADP private job addition in the U.S. for August amounted to only about 380,000, the lowest since January this year, significantly reducing market expectations of further Fed monetary tightening; second, a temporary decline in geopolitical risk premiums, as Trump explicitly stated on Wednesday that any new strikes against Iran “would not last long,” reaffirmed U.S. control over the Strait of Hormuz, and indicated readiness to act again, while briefly suggesting renaming the strait the “Trump Strait” (later clarifying it was merely an offhand comment). WTI crude oil, which had risen approximately 9% over the previous three days, stabilized near $90 per barrel, while Brent crude fell below $95 per barrel.
Although the U.S. military escorted 40 commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the shipping industry remains cautious about security conditions, with daily charter rates for some tankers exceeding $5 million. Additionally, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by a larger-than-expected 4.5 million barrels to 424.5 million barrels, while refinery utilization rose to 98%, the highest level since 2018, indicating that energy fundamentals remain tight. To address supply risks, the United States has signed an energy cooperation agreement with Venezuela; Chevron plans to invest $7 billion over the next five years to increase local production to approximately 600,000 barrels per day, with related crude oil potentially entering U.S. reserves as early as November. However, Chevron’s CEO cautioned that these additional supplies will take years to materialize and cannot serve as an immediate solution to any disruption in Strait of Hormuz shipments.
The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book shows that economic activity has expanded modestly since early July, with 10 of the 12 districts reporting slight to moderate growth. Consumer spending has risen slightly, but price sensitivity has increased, while high-end consumption remains strong. Manufacturing has rebounded, supported by orders in defense and data centers, while employment saw only a marginal increase. Business outlooks remain generally positive, though firms remain cautious about uncertainties surrounding energy prices, policy, and international conflicts. The Beige Book repeatedly highlights AI and data centers as key drivers of current growth.
U.S. Treasury yields decline from highs, yen's sharp rally sparks speculation of intervention.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose intraday to approximately 4.818%—its highest level since the end of 2023—before retreating to close around 4.78%, a slight decline from the previous trading day. The 30-year yield remained near the elevated level of 5.27%. Weaker ADP data and a pause in oil price gains temporarily lowered inflation expectations, but long-term global interest rates remain in a sensitive zone. Grace Peters, Chief Strategy Officer at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, warned that if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaches or exceeds 5%, U.S. equities could experience a “healthy correction” of 5%–8%, with sensitivity amplified by seasonal weakness in September and the approaching midterm elections. CITIC Securities attributed the surge in developed-market government bond yields to rising inflation expectations, concerns over sovereign creditworthiness, and a repricing of central bank policy paths, noting that upward pressure remains in the near term.
Japan’s 30-year government bond yield has risen to 4.155%, nearing its historical high. Thursday’s auction of 30-year bonds has drawn significant attention. Prashant Newnaha, Senior Asia-Pacific Interest Rate Strategist at TD Securities, warned: "Japanese bonds were long the anchor of the global fixed-income market, but that logic has now reversed—further selling of Japanese bonds could trigger a repricing across global fixed-income markets." The market generally expects a weak auction result; if it fails, it could exert downward pressure on U.S. Treasuries, becoming a new catalyst for rising global borrowing costs.
The U.S. Dollar Index edged down about 0.1% to around 99.5, with data showing that global investors’ hedging exposure to the dollar has fallen to its lowest level since at least 2015, at 41%. Bloomberg estimates that if hedging ratios across six major markets rise by 5 percentage points, it could correspond to approximately $230 billion in dollar trading volume, suggesting mounting selling pressure. The yen surged intraday by about 1.2%, pushing USD/JPY as high as 158.22, as markets remain highly alert to potential coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention—Japan already spent a record $96.4 billion to defend the yen last month.
The weakening U.S. dollar directly fueled a V-shaped rebound in precious metals, with spot gold hitting a low before rallying and breaking above $4,400 per ounce; silver rose nearly 2% to approximately $66 per ounce. Gold and silver stocks moved in tandem, with Endeavour Silver up nearly 9%, First Majestic Silver up nearly 7%, and the world’s largest gold miner Newmont along with Barrick Gold both rising over 2%. Additionally, the Dutch Central Bank, amid geopolitical instability, relocated over 78 metric tons of gold from New York and other locations to London, highlighting a broader trend of central bank reserve reallocation. Deutsche Bank analysis suggests that selling pressure in the gold market is nearing exhaustion; if gold prices do not fall below $4,315 per ounce, systemic selling is unlikely to be triggered. Should prices rise, CTA strategy funds may be forced to rebuild long positions, paving the way for active discretionary capital to carry the next upward wave.
Dell's surge validates AI hardware orders, but the application side suffers heavy losses
Last night, most U.S. tech stocks rose, with hardware and infrastructure companies—such as Dell, NVIDIA, and Micron—leading gains, strongly validated by real orders and guidance; meanwhile, software applications and cybersecurity stocks suffered widespread declines.
NVIDIA rose 3.21%, and JPMorgan reiterated its “Overweight” rating and $320 price target following investor relations roadshows with the company. NVIDIA clarified that its 70% year-over-year growth framework for fiscal 2028 is not a demand ceiling—demand from hyperscale cloud providers, sovereign AI, and enterprise customers remains robust; without supply constraints, revenue could have more than doubled. At events related to the G20, Jensen Huang called on governments to accelerate AI infrastructure development and stated that NVIDIA will invest nearly $1 trillion in U.S. infrastructure this year.
Dell surged 15.81% after reporting a record number of AI server orders and significantly raising its full-year revenue guidance to approximately $192 billion, far exceeding market expectations. Analysts noted that dual drivers are at play: enterprises replacing aging legacy servers combined with new demand for AI agent inference. Broadcom dipped slightly during trading, but its after-hours earnings report showed Q3 revenue increased 86% year-over-year to approximately $29.6 billion, with AI semiconductor revenue more than tripling to $16.7 billion. However, its Q4 revenue guidance of approximately $34.8 billion fell short of the market expectation of $35.05 billion, causing post-market pressure on the stock. More importantly, the company raised its full-year AI revenue guidance to $58 billion and expects next year’s AI revenue to nearly double, potentially reaching $230 billion in fiscal 2028—reinforcing market perception of Broadcom as one of the core beneficiaries of AI, alongside NVIDIA, in custom AI chips and networking.
Meanwhile, AI model development is rapidly intensifying: last night, Google released Gemini 3.8 Flash and a cybersecurity model, enhancing capabilities in programming, agents, and cybersecurity. This has raised market concerns that Google and other large model companies may directly enter the core markets of Palantir and cybersecurity firms, causing Palantir’s stock to drop nearly 6%. Simultaneously, Meta launched Muse Spark 1.3, calling it the company’s most powerful AI model to date. The Chief AI Officer stated that performance has significantly improved, with the new model achieving the greatest leaps in programming and agent capabilities, competing with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol on programming tasks. Meta’s stock rose 2.47%. The focus of this AI competition is shifting from “who has the higher model scores” to “who can use AI more cost-effectively.” Meta noted that its new model reduces tool calls by approximately 20% and token consumption by about 25%, meaning the cost of completing AI tasks is declining—a critical factor for future application breakthroughs.
Specific project actions and stock price fluctuations:
Dell surges 15.81%: Record AI server orders and significantly raised full-year guidance reinforce the long-term bullish narrative for data centers. Among related hardware stocks, Micron Technology rises 2.43% (its newly developed high-durability NAND modules within GPU packaging surpass traditional memory limits), while Hewlett Packard Enterprise reports Q3 earnings above expectations, but management warns that supply chain bottlenecks struggle to keep pace with surging demand, causing its stock to drop over 5% in after-hours trading.
NVIDIA rose 3.21%: JPM reiterated its overweight rating, with the company clarifying that its FY28 growth framework is not a demand ceiling—supply remains the bottleneck. The semiconductor sector as a whole showed signs of recovery, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising approximately 0.45%.
Microsoft dipped 0.84%: For the first time in over a decade, it has significantly restructured its financial reporting, reducing operating segments to “AI and Infrastructure” and “Devices and Consumer.” Cloud operations will be disclosed separately, with key businesses such as Azure and Microsoft 365 Cloud reporting revenue individually, enabling the market to more directly assess the relationship between AI cloud investments and revenue realization.
Palantir fell 5.81% despite securing the prime contract for the U.S. Army’s TITAN ground station system, as Google’s launch of an AI security model for government and critical infrastructure sparked market concerns over intensifying competition in the government AI sector.
Software stocks plunge: Datadog drops over 6%, CrowdStrike falls about 5.42%; MongoDB slides more than 13% (Q2 revenue up 30.5% year-over-year, raised full-year guidance, but market focuses on profitability quality and equity compensation pressure); Palo Alto Networks falls 9.28% (strong earnings, but slowed growth expectations and entry of large model companies into cybersecurity have led to downward valuation revisions); C3.ai maintains its full-year revenue forecast but issues Q2 guidance below expectations, dropping 1% in after-hours trading.
Tesla rose 0.26%: The market awaits today’s Cybercab launch; autonomous driving, Robotaxi, and humanoid robots remain key drivers of valuation upside. Musk predicts that by 2036, over one billion humanoid robots will be in use globally, and says AI could boost global economic output by 20% to 30%, equivalent to adding $20 trillion to $30 trillion in annual economic value.
Credo Technology fell 20.04%: Credo's first-quarter revenue reached $479 million, a year-over-year increase of approximately 115%, and EPS of $1.20, both exceeding expectations; however, gross margin declined by 3.7 percentage points sequentially to 64.5%, prompting Bank of America to lower its price target from $340 to $275.
Eos Energy rises nearly 19%: Partners with Google and MN8 on a solar-plus-zinc-based energy storage project in West Virginia, marking Google’s first adoption of its aqueous zinc battery technology.
Broadcom fell 0.66% during regular trading and 1.5% in after-hours trading: Third-quarter revenue increased 86% year-over-year, with AI semiconductor revenue reaching $16.7 billion, more than tripling year-over-year; however, fourth-quarter revenue guidance slightly missed expectations. Management raised its fiscal year AI revenue guidance to $58 billion and expects AI revenue to reach $230 billion in fiscal year 2028, maintaining a strong long-term AI narrative.
Snowflake fell 4.37% during regular trading but surged over 23% in after-hours trading: it raised its full-year product revenue guidance to approximately $6.07 billion, exceeding expectations, amid accelerated adoption of its AI-assisted coding tool.
Next, pay attention to:
September 3 (Thursday)
20:30 Fed Governor Waller gives an interview: This is an important speech before the FOMC blackout period. If Waller echoes Walsh’s hawkish stance, the probability of a September rate hike may continue to rise; if he emphasizes employment risks, the market may lower its pricing of rate hikes.
Tesla Cybercab launch: Tesla will unveil the Cybercab, featuring no steering wheel or pedals, in Austin. The market is focused on whether it will officially join the Robotaxi fleet, the progress of commercial licensing, the mass production timeline, and the unit economics model. If the launch exceeds expectations, it could catalyze interest in Tesla, autonomous driving, sensors, in-vehicle computing, and the Robotaxi concept.
The 2026 World Battery Power Conference is underway until September 4: Industry leaders including Tesla, CATL, and BYD are participating and will release the Power Battery Industry Development Index. Significant advancements in solid-state batteries, fast charging, battery safety, and energy storage technologies could impact the new energy vehicle, battery materials, equipment, and energy storage sectors.
September 4 (Friday)
Earnings reports from DocuSign, Lululemon, Zscaler, Ciena, UiPath, Planet Labs, Ambarella: Zscaler reflects demand for cloud security, Ciena reflects the health of optical communications, DocuSign reflects enterprise software spending, Lululemon reflects consumer resilience, Ambarella reflects edge AI and automotive vision chips.
20:30 U.S. August Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings: The top global market data of the week. Markets expect non-farm payrolls to increase by approximately 55,000–58,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. If employment and wages come in stronger than expected, it will reinforce pricing for a September rate hike, pushing the dollar and short-term bond yields higher, while pressuring Nasdaq, gold, and long-duration growth stocks. If non-farm payrolls weaken significantly, it could reduce hawkish pricing from the Fed, potentially leading to a rebound in U.S. Treasuries, gold, and tech stocks.