U.S. stocks decline as Intel and AMD rise amid shift in the AI chip sector

U.S. stocks reopened after the long holiday, but the market did not immediately continue its previous risk appetite.

On September 8, BiyaPay market data showed that the three major U.S. stock indices closed lower: the Dow Jones fell 1.2%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.3%. At first glance, this appeared to be a routine correction; however, the more interesting development was the clear divergence within the semiconductor sector as the indices weakened. Intel surged approximately 9%, AMD rose nearly 6%, and Qualcomm, Broadcom, and ASML also posted gains of varying degrees. In contrast, NVIDIA declined about 2%, while Micron and SanDisk, among other storage-focused companies, underperformed.

This market condition最容易让人产生错觉. Looking only at the index, you might think tech stocks are cooling down; looking only at individual stocks, you’ll find capital hasn’t left AI and chips—it’s simply shifting rapidly between different sectors. Especially when oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, Fed expectations, and the AI supply chain all simultaneously influence the market, focusing on just one aspect can easily cause you to miss the true signals.

When analyzing such market conditions, it’s more intuitive to observe multiple assets together. For example, in the BiyaPay app, you can simultaneously monitor U.S. stocks like Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, and NVIDIA, while also tracking movements in Hong Kong stocks, BTC, ETH, gold, and crude oil. As a global all-in-one asset allocation platform, BiyaPay covers diverse asset classes—including digital assets, U.S. and Hong Kong stocks, and fiat currency exchanges—making it ideal for observing price dynamics across different markets. In periods of high volatility, the key isn’t chasing daily price swings, but understanding whether capital is flowing toward interest rates, inflation, AI-related opportunities, or shifts in risk appetite.

This indicates that the funds have not simply withdrawn from AI and chips, but are instead reallocating to other directions.

Over the past period, U.S. tech trading has been heavily concentrated on keywords such as NVIDIA, AI servers, memory chips, and capital expenditures on computing power. However, as oil prices rise again, U.S. Treasury yields increase, and the Fed’s September meeting approaches, market tolerance for high-valued assets will decline. At this time, capital tends to favor two types of companies: those with clear orders or customer validation, and those with more transparent profit recovery fundamentals.

Intel, Qualcomm, and AMD have been pulled back into the spotlight by capital, precisely due to this logic.

This round of pressure on U.S. equities stems primarily from macroeconomic factors.

Brent crude briefly approached and briefly surpassed the $100 mark, while WTI rose above $90. Rising oil prices will reignite inflation expectations, and if inflation becomes more persistent, the Fed will find it harder to pivot quickly toward easing. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to around 4.8%, and the 30-year yield remains elevated. For U.S. equities, the combined pressures of oil prices, inflation, and interest rates hit valuations first.

Technically, tech stocks should be more sensitive, as many high-growth companies are valued based on future cash flows; higher interest rates reduce the attractiveness of distant profits when discounted to present value. However, this time, the Nasdaq’s decline was smaller than the Dow’s, and semiconductors even strengthened against the trend—indicating that the market is not broadly selling off tech, but rather undergoing a structural shift.

The real question in funding is who can clearly articulate growth in a high-interest-rate environment, and whose price increases, orders, customers, and product roadmap are more likely to translate into profits.

Intel's recent surge is seemingly triggered by price and earnings expectations.

DigiTimes reported that Intel may raise PC CPU prices again in October by approximately 10%. This news spurred a significant rise in Intel’s stock price, making it one of the top-performing stocks on the S&P 500 that day. It should be noted that Intel has not issued an official comment on this report, so it cannot yet be considered confirmed guidance. However, the market’s willingness to respond positively suggests that investors are closely watching whether Intel’s pricing power has returned.

This is very important.

Over the past few years, Intel's biggest challenge hasn't been lack of revenue, but rather persistent pressure on profit margins, manufacturing investments, and competitive forces that have weighed on its valuation. Now, if CPU prices rise, server demand improves, and cost pressures are gradually passed on, the market will reassess its potential for profit recovery. Added to this is the growing demand from AI data centers for server CPUs, interconnects, and infrastructure, which means Intel is no longer just a cyclical PC stock—it is now being priced as part of the AI infrastructure value chain.

Of course, Intel's logic has not yet reached a point of complete reversal. What truly determines how far the valuation recovery can go is not a single 9% daily gain, but whether Intel can demonstrate over the next few quarters that price increases won't significantly suppress demand, whether its data center business can continue to improve, and whether its advanced process and foundry businesses can alleviate market concerns.

Qualcomm's recent strength is driven more by industry growth factors.

On September 8, Qualcomm officially announced a multi-generation product collaboration with Amazon, focusing on developing customized chips and optical interconnect solutions for large-scale AI data centers, with key emphasis on AI inference and optical connectivity up to 1.6 Tbps. The market is not only paying attention to Amazon as a client, but also to whether Qualcomm can leverage this partnership to establish a second growth curve beyond mobile chips.

In the past, Qualcomm's core focus was on smartphones, modems, and mobile computing. But as AI enters the inference stage, data centers now require not only GPUs but also more efficient inference chips, low-power computing, and high-speed interconnects. If Qualcomm can leverage its energy efficiency advantages from mobile to data centers, it has the opportunity to move beyond the traditional smartphone cycle.

However, it’s important to clarify that the so-called potential scale of up to $60 billion does not equate to confirmed order revenue. Some reports indicate this figure is tied to Amazon’s stock warrants and future procurement terms; whether it can be fully converted into Qualcomm’s revenue depends on subsequent product deliveries, customer procurement timelines, and the competitive landscape. The market’s short-term rally reflects a repricing of Qualcomm’s entry into the AI data center space, not the full recognition of a decade’s worth of revenue.

AMD rose, primarily driven by sentiment around AI chips and the server supply chain.

AMD has always occupied a delicate position. It is not the absolute leader in AI like NVIDIA, but it is far from insignificant. The market’s focus on AMD centers on two key points: whether its MI series AI accelerators can continue to secure orders from major clients, and whether its server CPUs and data center business can sustain their share growth.

When Qualcomm secures a partnership with Amazon and Intel regains pricing power, AMD will also be compared in the same context. Beyond NVIDIA, who else can secure a large enough share of the AI infrastructure expansion? This is the source of AMD’s resilience.

But AMD’s challenge lies here: the market is not giving it a certainty premium, but a follower premium. Follower rallies typically rise quickly but are also prone to pullbacks due to order timing, gross margins, supply chain issues, and software ecosystem challenges. Therefore, AMD’s price increase should not be judged solely by daily gains—more importantly, it must be evaluated based on whether its AI revenue share, customer expansion, and product iterations continue to materialize.

What’s most noteworthy in this round of semiconductor divergence isn’t who’s rising or falling, but that AI trading is shifting from a single龙头 narrative to a more granular industry chain pricing model.

In the early stage, the market favored companies with the highest certainty, making NVIDIA, TSMC, memory chips, and AI servers the main themes. However, as valuations rise, capital begins seeking new narratives: Intel is trading on price and earnings recovery, Qualcomm on AI inference and new entry points in data centers, AMD on alternative elasticity beyond NVIDIA, and ASML and semiconductor equipment on the expansion cycle of advanced process technologies.

It's still AI, but the position has changed.

This also explains why, even when the broader market declines, semiconductors can still rise against the trend. The market isn’t ignoring interest rates—it’s seeking technology assets that can better prove their value in a high-interest-rate environment. As long as AI capital expenditures aren’t disproven, chip stocks won’t simply exit the stage; they’ll merely rotate between different segments.

In the short term, the semiconductor sector’s rally against the market trend sends a signal: the AI and chip themes have not disappeared—funds are simply seeking new anchors beyond overcrowded trades. NVIDIA’s decline does not signify a retreat from AI; Intel, Qualcomm, and AMD’s gains do not indicate a full-scale market shift. More accurately, the market is rebalancing pricing power within the AI industry chain.

Next, several variables are crucial.

First is the U.S. August CPI. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule, the August CPI will be released on September 11. With oil prices already rising significantly, stronger-than-expected inflation data would further increase pressure on the Fed ahead of its September meeting. Second is the FOMC meeting on September 15–16. The market currently prices in a high likelihood of a rate hike in September, and the interest rate path will directly impact tech stock valuations. Third is the follow-up orders in the AI supply chain—partnerships between Qualcomm and Amazon, expectations of Intel price increases, and AMD’s server demand—all require further validation in upcoming earnings reports and guidance.

Therefore, this round of semiconductor price increases resembles a structural revaluation rather than merely an emotional rebound.

Rising oil prices and higher U.S. Treasury yields would typically weigh on risk assets; however, the semiconductor sector’s strength despite these headwinds indicates that capital is still willing to pay for AI infrastructure—just with greater selectivity. Companies that will continue to outperform in the future may not be the ones with the most flashy narratives, but rather those that can effectively connect customers, orders, pricing, and profit margins.

The U.S. stock market remains under pressure, but AI chips show no signs of slowing down. The real question isn’t whether AI chip stocks can still rise, but who will prove that this wave of AI investment can ultimately generate cash flow.