Article by: Tide Research
Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran are already in talks, and the Strait of Hormuz could reopen as early as tomorrow—first by opening the channel, then discussing denuclearization. This news immediately sent oil prices plunging 5%, while U.S. Treasury yields also eased. Meanwhile, tech stocks rode the lingering momentum from the recent earnings season, with the Magnificent Seven index surging 3.6%—its best single-day gain in four months—pushing Google’s market cap past Apple’s to become the world’s second-largest, and Amazon entering the $3 trillion club. Across the Pacific, however, the scene was starkly different: South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynitz were hammered, with last Friday’s 18% single-day rally nearly erased.
U.S.-Iran negotiations spark optimism, causing oil prices to plunge 5% in a single day.
The Dow Jones rose 1.32%, the S&P 500 rose 1.48%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.13%, with all three indices opening higher and continuing to climb.
On that day, Trump stated that negotiations with Iran would proceed in two steps: first, reopening the Strait of Hormuz; second, advancing denuclearization. The Strait of Hormuz could reopen as soon as tomorrow. Upon this news, international crude oil futures prices dropped by approximately 5%, with WTI falling 5.11% and Brent dropping 4.73%. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries declined by 4 basis points to 4.69%, after having previously surged to its highest level since January 2025—this move provided some relief.
COMEX gold rose 0.15% to $4,113 per ounce. COMEX silver rose 1.08% to $58.40 per ounce. Bitcoin opened Monday at $63,497.25, up 1.2%, then pulled back to $62,643 during early trading; Ethereum opened at $1,883.15, up 2.2%, then declined to $1,840.70 during early trading.
Crude oil prices have fallen, but Trump’s stance toward oil companies hasn’t softened. On the same day, he stated that oil giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron have made "too much money" from the conflict in Iran and called on them to "give back" some of their profits to the public. This isn’t the first time he’s said this—he issued similar strong remarks at the end of June. In short, over the past few weeks, geopolitical risks have pushed oil prices to elevated levels, resulting in impressive reported profits for oil companies; Trump is now taking the opportunity, amid signs of easing negotiations, to send a message to these corporations.
The Seven Giants surged 3.6% in a single day, with Google surpassing Apple to become the world's second-largest company.
The U.S. Big Seven index surged 3.6% today, marking its best single-day performance since March 31. Google rose over 4%, surpassing Apple in market capitalization to become the world’s second-largest company. Amazon also climbed more than 4%, hitting a new high and reaching a market cap of $3 trillion, becoming the fifth publicly traded company globally to cross this threshold. NVIDIA rose nearly 3%, with its market cap reclaiming the $5 trillion mark. Meta jumped 6%, as the company is set to attend an AI summit at the White House tomorrow. Microsoft rose nearly 5%, with its cumulative gain over the past three trading days approaching 25%.
This broad market rally is largely fueled by a series of earnings reports released over the past few days—Microsoft’s cloud growth, Amazon’s AWS performance, and Meta’s spending commitments—whose strong results have significantly restored market confidence in the AI narrative. Today’s easing of geopolitical tensions has further bolstered this momentum.
South Korean chip stocks suffer a setback, giving back nearly all of last week's gains
Across the Pacific, the market moved in the opposite direction. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index plunged more than 5% that day, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix briefly falling over 8%, dragging down the entire Asian semiconductor stock sector. The Korean Exchange was forced to activate the circuit breaker mechanism for the KOSDAQ index, halting algorithmic trading for five minutes. Just last Friday, KOSPI had set a record for a single-day gain of 18%, and this pullback nearly erased all of that recent surge.
Even though they are in the same storage-related sector, U.S. stocks have taken a completely different path. On the same day, most companies in the optical communication and storage sectors rose: Kioxia ADR climbed about 14%, Lumentum and Coherent surged over 9%, SanDisk and Corning advanced more than 6%, Credo rose over 5%, while Western Digital, Seagate, and SK Hynix saw slight declines. Along the same supply chain, U.S. and Korean markets have delivered two starkly different valuations.
Emotional recovery is just the beginning; two factors determine how far you can go.
Today’s trading session was driven by two converging trends: one was the macroeconomic sentiment recovery fueled by easing geopolitical tensions, as oil prices fell and U.S. Treasury yields declined, lifting market-wide pressure; the other was the accumulated confidence in tech stocks from the earnings season, with giants like Microsoft and Amazon delivering strong results that encouraged investors to continue increasing positions in the Magnificent Seven. The combination of these two factors created today’s broad-based rally.
The divergence between South Korean chip stocks and U.S. memory stocks is worth closer attention. While both are part of the same memory supply chain, South Korean stocks are more driven by leveraged capital and short-term profit-taking, whereas U.S. stocks better reflect actual demand signals conveyed through earnings reports. If upcoming data on memory prices over the next few days confirms the optimistic pricing in U.S. markets, this divergence may not last long.
Trump’s pressure on oil companies is also worth noting, as it reflects his attempt to balance lowering oil prices without alienating voters. Whether the Strait of Hormuz can truly reopen tomorrow, as he claimed, will be the first litmus test for how far this optimism can extend.