U.S. stock market plunges as Nasdaq falls 2.6% on October 22

1. MicroStrategy (MSTR) recently added 267 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 848,517 BTC—purchased at an average price of 82,900 during October 12–18, costing approximately $22.1 million; during the same period, it repurchased $193 million in STRC preferred shares, signaling a shift in capital allocation toward shareholder returns.
2. BlackRock's IBIT attracts $665 million in a single day, reversing Bitcoin ETF fund flows—on October 20, IBIT saw significant net inflows, reversing the prior week’s outflows, while Fidelity’s FBTC faced $83.63 million in net outflows and Grayscale’s GBTC lost $54.93 million, intensifying institutional divergence.
3. With the Federal Reserve's October 27-28 meeting approaching, markets are pricing in an over 80% probability of holding rates steady—current target range for the federal funds rate is 3.75%-4.00%, with only about a 15% chance of a rate hike in October; the December meeting is seen as the final potential window for a rate increase this year.
4. Coinbase shares pressured as Q2 revenue fell 17% year-over-year to 1.154 billion — COIN closed at $169.09 (-4.51%), with continued losses and weak crypto trading volume weighing on valuation, down over 53% from its 52-week high of $373.25.
5. Geopolitical tensions persist: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its fourth year, and the Middle East remains unstable—the U.S. is advancing a secondary sanctions bill targeting Russian oil and gas buyers, while Russia deepens energy cooperation with Iran to offset pressure; risks to Red Sea shipping remain.

Performance of the three major indices

Based on the latest available data (close on October 22):

• S&P 500: Closed at 7,663.43 on October 22, down 1.21%
• Nasdaq: Closed at 26,430.89 on October 22, down 2.6%
• Dow Jones: Closed at 52,867.98 on October 22, up 0.02%

Macroeconomic Data and Federal Reserve Developments

Federal Funds Rate: Current target range 3.75%-4.00% (effective September 17, 2026)

• Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR): 3.88% (data for October 14-15)Source: MacroView
• The September FOMC meeting unanimously approved a 25-basis-point rate hike, the first increase since July 2023 Source: SimianX

October Meeting Outlook:

• CME FedWatch data shows an over 80% probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in October, with a roughly 15% probability of a rate hike.
• The December 8-9 meeting is viewed as the most critical interest rate observation window of the year, with the dot plot pointing to another 25 bps hike by year-end to 4.00%-4.25%.

U.S. Treasury yields:

• 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: Recently fluctuated between 5.00% and 5.31%, reaching the highest level since 2007 Source: VT Markets
• 2-year U.S. Treasury yield: approximately 4.73%-4.75% Source: Admiral Markets

Dollar Index (DXY):

• Recently oscillating in the 101.7–102.1 range, up nearly 4% from the September low Source: VT Markets

DAT company updates

Strategy (MSTR) — The world's largest publicly traded Bitcoin company

Position updated:

• Total holdings: 848,517 BTC (as of October 18)
• Total cost: approximately 63.8–64 billion, with an average purchase price of about $75,416 per coin (including fees)Source: SSDUO
• Current market cap: Based on a BTC price of 83,000, the holding value is approximately 70.4 billion.

Capital operations:

• From October 12–18, $22.1 million was spent on purchasing cryptocurrencies, but during the same period, $193.1 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred shares (8.7 times the amount spent on crypto purchases).
• Dollar reserves have decreased to $5.52 billion, indicating a shift toward shareholder returns Source: 120BTC
• The board has authorized an increase in the digital credit securities repurchase quota from 2 billion to 3 billion.

mNAV Analysis:

• mNAV (multiple of share price to net asset value) is a key metric for evaluating DAT's valuation.
• When mNAV > 1, the company can raise capital through additional stock issuance to purchase crypto assets and create arbitrage opportunities; when mNAV < 1, repurchasing preferred shares is more attractive.
• MSTR's current mNAV is near 1, reflecting market repricing of its leveraged Bitcoin strategy.

Other DAT company developments

Based on the search results, no other U.S. public companies have announced new Bitcoin purchase or DAT transformation plans in October. The industry as a whole is entering a consolidation phase:

• Galaxy Digital predicts: At least five DAT companies will shut down or be acquired by 2026 due to operational issues Source: 120BTC
• Industry executive insight: MoreMarkets CEO Altan Tutar stated that as market competition intensifies, most Bitcoin treasury companies will disappear, with DAT companies focused on altcoins being the first to exit.

Added to the Crypto U.S. Stocks Watchlist: No new DAT companies announced cryptocurrency purchases or transformations this period.

Generalized Crypto US Stocks

(1) Exchange and financial platforms

Coinbase (COIN):

• Stock price 169.09 (-4.51%), Q2 revenue $1.154 billion (-17.34% YoY), net loss of $359 million
• Strategic transformation: Launch trading in U.S. stocks/ETFs, prediction markets, tokenized assets, and single-stock perpetual contracts
• Challenge: Three consecutive quarters without meeting Wall Street expectations, with weak cryptocurrency trading volume

Robinhood (HOOD):

• Stock price 96.52 (-2.38%), Q2 revenue $1.308 billion (+32.25% YoY), net profit $585 million (+51.55%)
• Highlights: Predictive market revenue 156 million (+300% YoY), options revenue 342 million (+29%)
• Concern: Q1 crypto revenue 134 million (-47% YoY), crypto trading volume 2.4 billion (-48%)

(2) Spot ETF Fund Flows

October Bitcoin ETF Fund Flow Overview:

According to TFTC data, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $292.5M over the first two trading days of October (October 1-2):

• October 2: Net inflow of $189.8M (largest single-day inflow this month)
• October 1: Net inflow of $102.7M
• Average daily net inflow: $146.3M Source: TFTC

October 20: Sharp reversal:

• BlackRock's IBIT: $665 million net inflow in a single day, completely reversing the previous week's net outflow.
• Fidelity FBTC: Net outflow of $83.63 million
• Grayscale GBTC: Net outflow of $54.93 million

BlackRock's new move:

• Submitted the "iShares Bitcoin Managed Protection ETF" application on October 20, ticker PBIT
• This actively managed fund uses options linked to IBIT to provide downside risk protection while retaining limited upside potential Source: Jinrongjie

Historical comparison:

• The last week of September (through September 25) saw net inflows of $2.4 billion into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, the largest weekly inflow since October 2025 Source: KuCoin
• BlackRock's IBIT accounted for the entire $1.2 billion in inflows this week, indicating extremely high concentration of institutional funds.

(3) Stablecoins and Payments

Circle and payment industry updates:

• No major on-chain action announcements from Circle, Visa, Mastercard, or PayPal were found for this month.
• The Coinbase-backed OUSD stablecoin is now live on Ethereum, Solana, and Base Source: Coingape

(4) Mining companies and computing power companies

MARA, RIOT, CIFR, and other mining companies:

• No major announcements from the above mining companies were found in October.
• Industry context: Some mining companies are transitioning toward AI/HPC, but specific progress will be disclosed during the earnings season.

Regulatory and accounting driven

SEC updates:

• Coinbase submitted two SEC registration applications on September 1, planning to launch single-stock perpetual contracts, indicating a gradually clearer regulatory environment Source: CoinUnited

Impact of accounting standards:

• Fair Value Accounting allows companies to record their held cryptocurrency assets at fair value, with unrealized gains and losses recognized in current-period profit.
• MSTR reported a $21 billion unrealized gain on digital assets in Q3, returning to profitability for the first time in four quarters, directly benefiting from this accounting standard Source: Sina Finance

Same-day stock and crypto联动 signal:

• BTC price is highly positively correlated with MSTR stock, but MSTR experiences more volatile fluctuations due to leverage effects.
• On October 20, IBIT saw a significant net inflow of $665 million, but MSTR's stock price did not rise correspondingly, indicating that the market is more focused on the company's capital operations (preferred share buybacks) than simply on its Bitcoin exposure.

Main conflicts and situation

Russia-Ukraine conflict:

• Entering the fourth year, Russian forces hold the ground advantage but face escalated Ukrainian long-range strikes (August 2026 large-scale drone attack on Moscow)
• The prospects for a ceasefire remain slim, with short-term dynamics dominated by "managed competition."

Middle East situation:

• On August 24, the United States shifted from military strikes to economic and alliance-building measures against Iran Source: ZeroFox
• Saudi Arabia is considering expanding the Red Sea oil pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and reduce geopolitical risks to energy supply Source: Conference Board
• The Houthi armed group in Yemen claims to have attacked Saudi Aramco's oil refinery; risks to Red Sea shipping remain.

Sanctions and Countermeasures:

• The United States is advancing a secondary tariff bill targeting buyers of Russian oil and gas (Senate review to begin in July 2026)
• Russia deepens energy and military cooperation with Iran to hedge against pressure

The transmission pathway between U.S. equities and cryptocurrency markets

Impact on U.S. stocks:

• Energy sector: Middle East tensions push oil prices higher (WTI crude 99.02, Brent crude 109.86), benefiting energy stocks but increasing inflationary pressures Source: Poly Trends
• Defense and Military: Ongoing geopolitical conflicts continue to support defense spending, benefiting Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and others.
• Supply chain risk: Red Sea shipping disruptions may increase transportation costs and impact global trade.

Impact on the crypto market:

• Safe-haven attribute: BTC, as "digital gold," may attract safe-haven capital inflows during geopolitical uncertainty.
• Energy costs: Rising oil prices increase mining expenses, putting pressure on miners' profit margins.
• Sanctions evasion: Countries such as Russia and Iran may increase the use of cryptocurrencies for cross-border settlements, but the scale remains limited and faces regulatory crackdowns.

Uncertainty:

• The outcome of the APEC summit in November 2026 will determine whether Sino-U.S. relations can achieve meaningful easing.
• If negotiations in Ukraine collapse or the situation in the Middle East spirals out of control, tensions could escalate again, triggering significant market volatility.

Macroeconomic data

• Federal Reserve October FOMC meeting: convening on October 27-28, with the decision announced at 2:00 PM ET on the 28th.
• Market expectations: Over 80% probability of holding rates steady, approximately 15% probability of a rate hike
• Focus: Whether the statement wording implies a December rate hike, and updates to the dot plot (no SEP this time)

Earnings season

• Crypto-related companies: Watch for Q3 earnings release dates for MSTR, COIN, HOOD, etc. (typically late October to early November)
• MSTR is expected to announce its Q3 earnings in early November, with focus on changes in Bitcoin holdings, mNAV, and STRC repurchase progress.
• COIN and HOOD need to monitor whether crypto trading revenue has stabilized and forecast the growth of their market business.

Special events for crypto US stocks

• MSTR weekly Bitcoin holding disclosure: Typically files an 8-K form with the SEC every Monday, disclosing last week’s bitcoin purchases or sales.
• The next disclosure is expected on October 27 (Monday); monitor whether buying will continue or be paused.
• ETF Fund Flows: Daily tracking of net inflows/outflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs such as IBIT, FBTC, and GBTC
• After IBIT recorded a single-day net inflow of $665 million on October 20, will the subsequent capital flows continue?
• Regulatory updates: Monitor the SEC's feedback on Coinbase's application for a single-stock perpetual contract and any related cryptocurrency policy statements.

Geopolitical node

• Russia-Ukraine conflict: Monitor frontline developments, Western aid commitments, and ceasefire negotiation progress
• Middle East局势: Monitor Iran nuclear deal negotiations, Israel-Hamas conflict, and Red Sea shipping security
• APEC Summit: To be held in November; potential meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders may influence global trade policies and market expectations

Risk Disclaimer

1. Federal Reserve policy uncertainty: Although the October meeting is likely to hold rates steady, expectations for a December rate hike remain, and elevated U.S. Treasury yields may suppress stock valuations.
2. Geopolitical black swan: Escalation of conflict in the Middle East could lead to a sharp rise in oil prices, fueling inflation and forcing the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate hikes.
3. Crypto regulatory oversight: Changes in SEC policies regarding crypto exchanges, stablecoins, and ETFs could trigger significant market volatility.
4. DAT company integration risk: Galaxy predicts that at least five DAT companies will go bankrupt or be acquired by 2026; be cautious of potential sharp declines in related stocks.

Data as of: October 22, 2026, 20:00 Eastern Time

The above is for informational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.