U.S. September PPI data to be released tonight, impacting expectations for Fed rate hikes

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Fed news will center on tonight’s U.S. September PPI data, scheduled for release at 20:30 Beijing time. Market forecasts anticipate a 0.5% month-over-month increase in overall PPI and a 0.3% rise in core PPI. A stronger-than-expected reading could reignite concerns over inflation, increasing the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes—likely pressuring risk assets such as stocks and crypto. A weaker result may ease expectations of tightening, supporting risk-on sentiment. Recent inflation data has shown resilience, and this PPI report will help confirm whether this trend persists.

ChainCatcher report: At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September PPI (Producer Price Index). The current market expectation is for overall PPI to rise +0.5% month-over-month and core PPI to rise +0.3% month-over-month.

If the data exceeds expectations, it will increase market pricing for further Fed rate hikes, pressuring U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets; if it falls short of expectations, it will ease tightening expectations and benefit risk asset performance. Previous CPI data has already shown persistent inflation, and this PPI report will further validate the sustainability of inflation.

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