U.S. September CPI to be released tonight; inflation outlook may influence Fed rate decision

Chainthink

Release Time: 2026/10/14 00:45:42

Summary

The U.S. will release September inflation data tonight at 20:30, with analysts forecasting an increase in overall CPI to 3.6% year-over-year and 0.6% month-over-month. Core CPI is expected to slow to 0.2% monthly. This inflation data will shape expectations for the Fed’s October meeting. CME data shows a 17% chance of a rate hike. If core CPI reaches 0.3%, a rate increase becomes more likely. Altcoins to watch may react sharply to the outcome. The PPI report follows on Thursday.

ChainThink reports that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI data tonight at 20:30.

Institutions expect the overall CPI year-over-year increase to rise from 3.4% in August to 3.6%, with a month-over-month gain of 0.6%, marking the largest increase in nearly five months, primarily driven by a rebound in energy prices;

Core CPI is expected to rise 2.5% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month, below the prior value of 0.3%. This is the final inflation report before the Fed’s interest rate meeting on October 27–28.

CME data shows that the market currently estimates a roughly 17% probability of a Fed rate hike in October. If core CPI rises by 0.3% month-over-month, it could strengthen expectations for a rate hike this month;

If the data aligns with the 0.2% expectation, the Fed may hold off on action and delay the rate hike decision until December. The U.S. will release PPI data on Thursday; both CPI and PPI will influence market perceptions of future inflation trends and the Fed’s policy path.

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