U.S. September CPI Rises to 3.7%, Exceeding Expectations

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1. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that the U.S. unadjusted year-over-year CPI for September came in at 3.7%, the highest level since May this year and above the market expectation of 3.6%.

2. Bank of America expects the Federal Reserve to implement three rate hikes by June 2027.

3. According to CCTV News, customs statistics show that imports and exports in September reached 5.16 trillion yuan, surpassing 5 trillion yuan for the first time, a 27.5% increase.

4. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in September 2026, the national consumer price index rose 0.9% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month; the national producer price index for industrial producers rose 5.0% year-over-year and 1.2% month-over-month.

5. The Ministry of Commerce announced that the total tariff-rate quota for fertilizer imports in 2027 is 13.65 million metric tons, including 3.3 million metric tons of urea, 6.9 million metric tons of diammonium phosphate, and 3.45 million metric tons of compound fertilizer.

6. On Wednesday, the Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association (FINI) said that Indonesia’s nickel product output in 2026 is expected to decline by as much as 4% year-over-year due to partial raw material shortages, a shift in production toward other metals, and the impact of drought on production.

1. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that the U.S. seasonally unadjusted CPI year-over-year for September came in at 3.7%, the highest since May this year and above the market expectation of 3.6%. The seasonally unadjusted CPI month-over-month for September was 0.6%, the highest since April this year, in line with expectations. The seasonally unadjusted core CPI year-over-year for September rose to 2.6%, the highest since June this year, exceeding the market expectation of 2.5%. The seasonally adjusted core CPI month-over-month for September was 0.3%, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%.

2. Bank of America expects the Federal Reserve to implement three rate hikes by June 2027.

3. Citigroup expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points in December 2026, revising its previous forecast that the Fed would hold rates steady throughout this year.

4. According to the latest data from CME’s “FedWatch,” the market’s probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in October has risen from 22.1% a day ago to 52.9%. However, this probability may still be constrained by the possibility that the Fed may avoid raising rates ahead of the midterm elections.

5. According to CCTV News, customs statistics show that imports and exports in September reached RMB 5.16 trillion, surpassing RMB 5 trillion for the first time, an increase of 27.5%. Exports amounted to RMB 3.03 trillion, up 29.6%, while imports reached RMB 2.13 trillion, up 24.6%.

6. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in September 2026, the national consumer price index rose 0.9% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month; the national producer price index for industrial producers rose 5.0% year-over-year and 1.2% month-over-month.

7. According to Xinhua Finance, Wang Ying, Deputy Director of the Futures Regulation Division at the China Securities Regulatory Commission, stated that, based on the strategic deployment for the 15th Five-Year Plan and in response to new circumstances and tasks, the CSRC’s Futures Regulation Division will firmly adhere to the directions of marketization, rule of law, and internationalization, and strive to build a futures market that is safe, standardized, transparent, open, vibrant, and resilient.

8. Xiong Jun, Chairman of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, stated at the 19th International Oilseed, Oil, and Agri-Products Conference and the Agricultural and Livestock Industry (Derivatives) Conference that the exchange will focus on expanding its product lineup in the agricultural, chemical, and iron and steel raw materials sectors, accelerate the research and development and listing of new products such as recycled scrap steel and sulfur, and enrich a variety of trading tools aligned with market demand.

9. According to the latest statistics from the China Futures Association, the monthly trading volume of the national futures market in September, calculated on a single-side basis, reached 1,189,741,520 contracts, with a trading value of RMB 8.4515522 trillion, representing year-over-year increases of 53.9% and 18.21%, respectively.

10. According to the People’s Bank of China, preliminary statistics show that as of the end of September 2026, the outstanding balance of total social financing was RMB 46.817 trillion, an increase of 7.1% year-over-year. As of the end of September, the balance of broad money (M2) was RMB 35.963 trillion, up 7.2% year-over-year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was RMB 11.676 trillion, up 3.2% year-over-year. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was RMB 1.502 trillion, up 10.6% year-over-year. Net cash injection for the first three quarters amounted to RMB 922.1 billion.

11. According to Fed Governor Bowman: Inflation remains above our target, but we do not currently believe the Fed needs to rush into further interest rate adjustments. After the last rate hike, we need time to observe how financial conditions evolve before taking any further action.

12. On Wednesday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the Fed may need to raise short-term interest rates further to curb elevated inflation, but she also noted that there is no need to take such action at the Fed’s meeting on October 27–28.

1. International precious metals futures generally closed lower; COMEX gold futures fell 1.2% to $4,127.3 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures dropped 6.26% to $55.8 per ounce.

2. The main contract for U.S. crude oil closed up 1.09% at $95.17 per barrel; the main contract for Brent crude oil rose 0.4% to $106.11 per barrel.

3. Base metals in London fell across the board: LME lead fell 0.03% to $1,901.5/ton, LME nickel fell 0.37% to $15,530/ton, LME zinc fell 0.43% to $3,715.5/ton, LME copper fell 0.97% to $14,436/ton, LME aluminum fell 1.65% to $2,989/ton, and LME tin fell 3.00% to $50,215/ton.

4. As of the close at 23:00 on October 14, domestic futures main contracts saw more declines than gains: coal fell nearly 5%, 20-number rubber and coke dropped over 3%, rubber declined nearly 3%, soda ash and synthetic rubber fell over 2%, and palm oil decreased nearly 2%. On the upside, fuel oil rose nearly 2%, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) increased nearly 1%.

On October 12, Wang Qingfeng, Director of the Shaanxi Development and Reform Commission, and Yang Yang, Deputy Director and Director of the Shaanxi Energy Bureau, visited Shaanxi Coal Industry's Huangling Mining and Pubei Mining Company to conduct research on stabilizing coal production and supply, intelligent coal mine construction, and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries.

2. For the week ending October 14, according to data from Zhonggang Network, the national construction material output was 4.1255 million tons, an increase of 110,700 tons from the previous week; total inventory stood at 9.0732 million tons, a decrease of 372,300 tons from the previous week. National hot-rolled coil output was 4.1274 million tons, a decrease of 70,300 tons from the previous week; total inventory was 5.2179 million tons, a decrease of 93,100 tons from the previous week.

3. According to the General Administration of Customs, China's steel exports in September amounted to 10.492 million tons, compared to 10.155 million tons in August. Iron ore and its concentrates imports reached 109.817 million tons in September, compared to 108.539 million tons in August.

4. HBIS's October ferrosilicon tender inquiry is at CNY 6,150/ton, compared to the September price of CNY 6,340/ton. The October HBIS 75B ferrosilicon tender quantity is 4,233 tons (including 900 tons from Tangshan Medium Plate), up from 3,804 tons in the previous tender, an increase of 429 tons.

1. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the total tariff-rate quota for fertilizer imports in 2027 is 13.65 million metric tons, including 3.3 million metric tons of urea, 6.9 million metric tons of diammonium phosphate, and 3.45 million metric tons of compound fertilizer.

2. According to Longzhong Information, as of October 14, 2026, the total inventory of urea enterprises in China was 1.6045 million metric tons, an increase of 121,800 metric tons from the previous cycle, representing a环比 increase of 8.21%.

3. According to the latest data from the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ) in the UAE, as of the week ending October 12, total refined product inventories at the Fujairah port amounted to 6.825 million barrels, a decrease of 749,000 barrels from the previous week.

4. The IEA monthly report forecasts that global oil supply will fall 1.73 million barrels per day below demand in 2026 (previously estimated at 1.74 million barrels per day). Global oil demand is expected to decline by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026, up from the previous estimate of 2.5 million barrels per day; oil demand is projected to increase by 2 million barrels per day in 2027, down from the prior estimate of 2.6 million barrels per day.

1. Data released by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) indicates that global copper mine production is expected to increase by 1.3% in 2026 and by 3.1% in 2027; global refined copper production is forecast to rise by approximately 0.4% in 2026 and by 3.4% in 2027; global apparent refined copper consumption is projected to grow by about 1.5% in 2026 and by 2.5% in 2027. Supply-demand balance forecasts suggest a global refined copper market surplus of approximately 104,000 metric tons in 2026, with the surplus expected to expand to about 368,000 metric tons in 2027.

2. According to Reuters, the union representing supervisors at BHP’s Escondida mine in Chile said they will begin a strike on Wednesday after mediation efforts to finalize a new collective labor contract failed. The union said negotiations have been restarted between the supervisory union and BHP’s Escondida mine to avoid a strike.

3. According to the Silicon Industry Association, China’s polysilicon production in September reached 120,400 tons, while wafer output was 55.27 GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of 94,000 tons. Monthly inventory increased by 24,000 tons (including imports and exports). As of the end of September, total polysilicon industry inventory stood at approximately 572,000 tons. In October, domestic polysilicon production is expected to decrease to around 105,000 tons, with monthly polysilicon demand estimated at about 86,000 tons—down from September—indicating that inventory accumulation is likely to continue.

4. Three market participants said on Wednesday that Aurubis, Europe’s largest copper smelter, will charge a record refined copper premium of $347 per ton to its customers next year. This premium, paid above the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price, represents an approximately 10% increase over the company’s 2026 European premium of $315 per ton.

5. On Wednesday, the Indonesian Nickel Smelter Association (FINI) said that Indonesia’s 2026 nickel product output is expected to decline by as much as 4% year-over-year due to partial raw material supply constraints, a shift in production toward other metals, and the impact of drought on production.

1. Supply-side bearish logic has resurfaced, causing continuous declines in linked egg futures.

Xinhu Futures stated that, based on egg price data from Handan over the past decade, the historical maximum price decline around the Mid-Autumn Festival has ranged from 0.5 to 1.5 yuan per jin, with an average of 1.1 yuan per jin. Using this year’s spot price high of 5.04 yuan per jin as a reference, the estimated spot price low for the fourth quarter after the festival is projected to range from 3.54 to 4.54 yuan per jin, with an average of 3.94 yuan per jin. However, this year’s spot price decline before the National Day holiday has been faster than expected, prompting futures prices to follow suit. The current maximum spot price drop has reached 1.37 yuan per jin, nearing the lower end of the historical range. Post-National Day, spot egg prices have stabilized, with consecutive rebounds over the past two days. Nevertheless, breeders still maintain substantial profits, which has not effectively accelerated culling activity, causing bearish supply-side fundamentals to re-emerge and drive further price declines. The near-term futures price trend is expected to remain weak; key future focus should be on culling pace. Once the industry enters a loss-making cycle and culling volumes increase, this is expected to create valuation recovery potential for longer-dated contracts.

2. Increased production expectations and weak demand absorption lead to a sharp decline in apple futures prices.

Guangfa Futures noted that this growing season experienced generally stable weather conditions, leading to an upward revision in overall production forecasts; the dominant supply surplus has directly pressured the 01 contract. On the demand side, the peak holiday stocking period “cooled down,” with wholesale market sales falling short of expectations, as buyers generally adopted small, just-in-time purchasing strategies. According to data from SteelMall, as of October 13, the average wholesale price of six major fruits was RMB 6.66 per kilogram, down 3.36% from August and 6.2% year-over-year. Looking ahead, Guangfa Futures believes that both supply and demand factors are bearish for the apple market, with futures and spot prices moving lower in tandem. In the short term, as new-crop apples from Shandong enter peak supply, weakened purchase prices and sluggish demand are expected to keep apple futures trading in a weak trend; market participants should monitor changes in opening purchase prices and actual storage volumes.