U.S. Military Prepares for Potential Large-Scale Action Against Iran

Review today's market trends and stay on top of the latest developments. Good morning, listeners. Today is Friday, November 6, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Rush. Futures Morning Rush — the top choice for millions of futures professionals!

Female Mandarin versionDownload MP3

1. How has Sino-U.S. relations progressed after the U.S. midterm elections? The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds.

2. The Ministry of Commerce responds to the expansion of agricultural product purchases from the U.S.: open to the idea, with reciprocal tariff reductions as a prerequisite.

3. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is publicly soliciting comments on the "Interim Provisions on the Management of Digital Identity for New Energy Vehicle Power Batteries (Draft for Comments)."

4. Fed's Barr: Gradual rate hikes remain reasonable to me.

5. A Reuters survey shows analysts on average expect U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2026/27 season to be 331 million bushels.

6. World Gold Council: Global gold ETF assets continue to grow, with net inflows of $2.7 billion in October.

7. More than 70% of LME copper inventory is currently located in U.S. warehouses, the highest level since March 2019.

8. The U.S. military is prepared for a large-scale strike against Iran.

9. Trump on Iran: A lot will be seen happening soon, and many initiatives are being prepared.

10. Report: Iran is reviewing specific proposals on nuclear issues, with new progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations.

11. The New York Times: Thousands of U.S. Air Force and Navy personnel are on standby, and military plans against Iran are ready.

1. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun: The midterm elections are an internal affair of the United States. China is willing to continue working with the United States to uphold and implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, strengthen communication, properly manage differences, expand cooperation, and build a constructive and strategically stable China-U.S. relationship based on respect, fairness, and reciprocity.

2. Fed's Barr said he expects inflation not to accelerate, but currently sees no clear sign it will decline; gradual rate hikes remain reasonable to him. Current policy is roughly near neutral.

3. According to the Wall Street Journal, after the Houthi militants attacked Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and seized the strategic bottleneck of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Saudi Arabia proactively reached out to the Houthis to understand what price would be required to end hostilities through negotiations. The response they received was: $51 billion.

4. Fed Chair Hamrick stated that gradual rate hikes cause less disruption to the economy and financial system, favoring frequent, small adjustments to interest rates. Monetary policy needs to shift to a restrictive stance. Inflation has remained too high and is moving in the wrong direction. The Fed’s independence is crucial to bringing inflation down to 2%.

5. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending October 31 came in at 189,000, the lowest since the week of July 18, compared to the market expectation of 196,000.

6. U.S. "Challenger" Layoff Report: Total U.S. layoffs in October amounted to 43,994, the lowest October level since 2023.

7. According to Al Jazeera, citing The New York Times: U.S. military forces are prepared to carry out large-scale military operations against Iran at Trump’s command.

8. On Thursday local time, U.S. President Trump stated at the White House regarding Iran: “We are going to do a lot of things. Over the next one or two weeks, you will see many things happen—we are preparing numerous initiatives. If possible, I do not want to destroy the rest of Iran, but perhaps I will have to.”

9. Senior Iranian official: Iran has transmitted a proposal on nuclear issues to the United States via Qatar, and will only discuss it if Washington meets its seven demands.

11. According to the New York Times, although Trump has suggested he is not eager to restart bombing operations, the possibility remains: in the past, some presidents have resorted to military action when suddenly thrust into a “backup option” role, partly to demonstrate to the world that their authority as commander-in-chief has not been diminished. Pentagon officials and military commanders stated locally on Wednesday that thousands of U.S. Air Force and Navy personnel, deployed across more than a dozen ships and bases in the Middle East and within the United States, are ready to resume large-scale military operations against Iran upon Trump’s orders.

1. International precious metals futures closed mixed: COMEX gold futures rose 0.61% to $4,097.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.86% to $51.83 per ounce.

2. The front-month U.S. crude oil contract rose 3.5% to close at $91.20 per barrel; the front-month Brent crude oil contract increased 4.82% to $99.18 per barrel.

3. London base metals showed mixed movements: LME nickel rose 3.40% to $16,315.0 per ton, LME lead rose 0.50% to $1,891.0 per ton, LME aluminum rose 0.33% to $3,057.0 per ton, LME zinc fell 0.70% to $3,780.5 per ton, LME copper fell 1.69% to $13,774.0 per ton, and LME tin fell 1.90% to $46,100.0 per ton.

4. As of the 23:00 close, domestic futures main contracts saw more declines than gains: propylene fell over 5%, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), polyethylene, and polypropylene dropped more than 4%, while monthly average polypropylene and benzene fell over 3%. On the upside, coke rose nearly 3%, rapeseed meal gained over 2%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) and coal coke advanced nearly 2%. As of the 1:00 close, the Shanghai copper main contract fell 1.29%, the Shanghai aluminum main contract rose 0.35%, the Shanghai zinc main contract declined 0.61%, the Shanghai nickel main contract gained 2.54%, the Shanghai tin main contract dropped 2.96%, the Shanghai lead main contract rose 1.13%, the stainless steel main contract increased 1.25%, the alumina main contract rose 0.15%, and the international copper main contract fell 1.33%.

5. As of the 2:20 close, U.S. soybeans fell 0.81%, U.S. corn fell 0.51%, U.S. soybean oil fell 2.06%, U.S. soybean meal fell 0.25%, and U.S. wheat rose 0.50%.

1. According to JiaoLian Information, as of November 2, the total volume of imported and exported freight at the Ganqimao Du port reached 39.7921 million metric tons. This includes 37.4166 million metric tons of imported coal, 1.6119 million metric tons of imported copper concentrate, 0.0024 million metric tons of imported manganese ore, and 0.7612 million metric tons of exported goods.

2. According to Mysteel, for the week ending November 5, apparent demand for rebar shifted from increase to decrease, while production rose for the fourth consecutive week. Factory inventories turned from decline to increase, and social inventories decreased for the fourth consecutive week. Rebar production reached 1.859 million tons, an increase of 47,200 tons (+2.61%) compared to the previous week; apparent demand stood at 2.008 million tons, a decrease of 52,700 tons (-2.56%) compared to the previous week.

3. This week, Mysteel reported that the capacity utilization rate for 523 coking coal mines was 71.2%, a decrease of 0.6% month-over-month. The daily average raw coal production was 1.603 million tons, down by 14,000 tons month-over-month, and raw coal inventories stood at 4.253 million tons, up by 136,000 tons month-over-month.

4. According to Mysteel's survey, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants nationwide this week was -9 yuan/ton; among them, the average profit for secondary-grade coke in Shanxi was 6 yuan/ton, in Shandong it was 40 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia it was -35 yuan/ton for metallurgical coke, and in Hebei it was 44 yuan/ton for secondary-grade coke.

1. According to CCTV News, starting November 5, the fuel surcharge standards for domestic flight passengers have been adjusted. For flight segments of 800 kilometers (inclusive) or less, the fuel surcharge is 80 yuan per adult passenger; for segments longer than 800 kilometers, it is 140 yuan per adult passenger, representing increases of 30 yuan and 50 yuan respectively from previous rates.

2. According to Jinlianchuang data, the national PTA average operating rate in October remained around 71.55%, with domestic PTA production expected to be approximately 6 million tons in October; the overall operating rate for domestic PTA in November 2026 is expected to see limited change compared to October, with November production likely to be roughly flat with this month.

3. According to Longzhong Information data, as of November 5, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 68.962 million standard cases, a decrease of 1.557 million standard cases环比, or 2.21%, but an increase of 9.23% year-over-year. The inventory turnover days stood at 32.2 days, unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of MEG in the East China main port area was 162,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous period. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.4128 million tons, up by 46,600 tons from Monday, a rise of 3.41%.

4. As of November 5, the methanol inventory at East China ports was 185,800 metric tons, up from 176,400 metric tons on October 29, an increase of 9,400 metric tons month-over-month.

5. EIA Natural Gas Report: As of the week ending October 30, U.S. natural gas inventories totaled 3.801 trillion cubic feet, an increase of 77 billion cubic feet from the previous week, a decrease of 109 billion cubic feet compared to the same period last year (a 2.8% year-over-year decline), and 54 billion cubic feet above the five-year average (a 1.4% increase).

1. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: To strengthen full-chain supervision of power batteries for new energy vehicles and enhance their recycling and reuse capabilities, the Ministry has drafted the "Interim Provisions on the Management of Digital Identity for Power Batteries of New Energy Vehicles" and is now soliciting public comments.

2. World Gold Council: Global gold ETF assets continued to expand, with net inflows of $2.7 billion in October; global gold ETF holdings increased by 19 metric tons to 4,275 metric tons; however, due to a decline in gold prices that month, assets under management (AUM) decreased by 6% to $542 billion.

3. According to Mysteel, as of November 5, the spot inventory of lithium ores among 33 sampled lithium ore traders amounted to 2.09 million metric tons, a decrease of 370,000 metric tons week-over-week, including 1.57 million metric tons of available inventory, down 180,000 metric tons week-over-week. The physical inventory of lithium ores at domestic ports stood at 3.88 million metric tons, down 160,000 metric tons week-over-week, with the inventory at Zhenjiang Port at 2.61 million metric tons, down 140,000 metric tons week-over-week.

4. According to Tavan Tolgoi, on November 4, 2026, Oyu Tolgoi LLC reported that the restricted copper concentrate exports have resumed normal operations.

5. SMM statistics show that as of November 5, the social inventory of domestic cast aluminum ingots decreased to 16,800 metric tons, a weekly reduction of 1,000 metric tons, marking seven consecutive weeks of inventory drawdown and reaching the lowest level of the year.

6. Polish Central Bank Governor Glapiński: Poland’s gold reserves rose to 700 tons in October, up from 672 tons last month, when Glapiński stated the goal was to increase gold reserves to 700 tons.

7. Data from the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Thursday showed that more than 70% of LME copper inventory is now stored in U.S. warehouses, the highest level since March 2019, as market participants stockpile inventory in the U.S. ahead of potential import tariffs.

8. According to data released by Chilean Customs, Chile’s copper exports in October amounted to 180,665 tons, with 13,652 tons exported to China; copper ore and concentrate exports totaled 1,350,404 tons, with 818,899 tons exported to China; lithium exports reached 23,288 tons, including 22,282 tons of lithium carbonate, of which 14,335 tons of lithium carbonate were exported to China.

Has the egg price really hit bottom?

Yide Futures research report shows that after the National Day holiday, both spot and futures prices for eggs weakened in tandem, experiencing an unexpected consecutive decline; after falling to low levels, a moderate rebound occurred, followed by a period of consolidation and indecision. Current market tensions have eased compared to earlier periods, with key characteristics including a backwardated futures curve, short-term low inventories providing support, and medium-term supply growth expectations capping upside potential—resulting in balanced long-short dynamics and making a clear trend unlikely. Short-term support: inventories remain low, and prior culling has alleviated short-term supply pressure, providing a floor under prices and making deep declines unlikely in the near term; the continued futures discount also offers some protection for nearby contracts. Medium-term pressure: following the price rebound, losses among breeders have improved, reducing their willingness to cull, potentially slowing the pace of culling; chickens raised in the first half of the year are gradually entering peak laying periods, continuously adding new supply. With culling slowing and new production increasing steadily, total inventory will continue to rise, directly limiting the upside potential of price rebounds.

2. Affected by the news, the SHFE nickel futures price surged significantly; treat this as a short-term rebound.

Hengyin Futures research report noted that the Shanghai nickel futures market surged significantly on Thursday. On the news front, the Indonesian government is preparing to control nickel production through its Work and Budget Plan (RKAB) to restore prices to healthy levels. The Minister of Downstream Industries and Energy Transition, who also serves as Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, emphasized that mineral resources must be managed with a long-term perspective, as minerals cannot be regenerated once extracted. In addition to production controls, the government is encouraging deeper downstream processing of nickel. Driven by this news, the market surged sharply, warranting a short-term rebound outlook. However, from a fundamental standpoint, domestic nickel ore prices have declined, with weakening costs and sluggish demand. The rally appears largely fueled by sentiment triggered by this event, and the sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen.