BlockBeats report: On September 8, with less than two months until the U.S. midterm election voting on November 3, President Trump’s approval rating and performance have become critical factors in determining whether the Republican Party can retain its majority in Congress. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that Trump’s net unfavorability is nearly double what it was at the same time in 2018; voters are broadly dissatisfied with the economic situation and the prospect of war with Iran, and Democratic voters currently exhibit higher turnout enthusiasm than Republican voters.
The Republican Party currently holds a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, with 218 seats to the Democrats’ 214. If the Democrats regain control of the House, they would be able to launch investigations into the Trump administration and compel the White House to seek compromises on most legislative issues. In the Senate, the Democrats would need to gain four seats from the Republicans to secure a majority, but the current electoral map is not favorable to them.
Independent analysts believe that only nine of the 35 Senate races are competitive. Even if Democrats win Georgia, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina, they still need to win at least two more seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas—states where Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024.
The Republican Party still holds advantages in redistricting and fundraising, and the new House district map could help the party gain a net maximum of 10 seats; Trump’s super PAC currently has $400 million in reserves. However, the cost of living remains its primary challenge, with energy prices, tariffs, and trade conflicts affecting voters in several key states. Election experts believe that midterm elections are typically seen as a referendum on the sitting president, and whether Trump can reignite enthusiasm among Republican voters will be crucial.