Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Asher (@Asher_0210)
The U.S. midterm elections will take place on November 3 local time. As the voting day approaches, whether the Republican Party can maintain control of Congress and the outlook for Trump’s governance over the next two years have become focal points of public attention.
Beyond traditional polls and political analysis firms, crypto prediction markets are also providing their own answers. Currently, multiple election events on prediction markets show a clear tilt toward the Democratic Party, with Republicans facing not only the risk of losing the House of Representatives but also a precarious hold on the Senate. So, according to participants in prediction markets, what are Trump’s chances of retaining control of the Senate? Which key states could determine the final outcome?
Next, Odaily Planet Daily will analyze the latest data from prediction markets to outline the changing probabilities of control of Congress, Senate seats, and key state races, revealing what the "real money" is betting on in this midterm election.
The probability of the Democratic Party sweeping Congress is 72%, while the Republican Party’s chance of retaining both chambers is only 6%.
In the prediction market for control of the U.S. Congress in the 2026 midterm elections (link: https://predict.fun/market/balance-of-power-2026-midterm-elections), the probability of the Democratic Party winning both chambers has risen to 72%, an increase of 7% over the past seven days; the probability of the Republican Party retaining the Senate while the Democrats win the House is 23%, and the probability of the Republican Party holding both chambers is only 6%.
This midterm election will renew all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate. The House is fully renewed every two years, while approximately one-third of the Senate is renewed every two years. Currently, the Republican Party controls both chambers of Congress. If the Democratic Party wins the House, it will be able to constrain Trump on legislation, budgeting, and government oversight; if it also gains control of the Senate, it will influence key appointments such as senior officials and federal judges. The election will not alter Trump’s presidential term, but it may directly affect his governing space over the next two years.
In addition to the combined prediction of control of both chambers, prediction markets also feature separate forecasts for House control (link: https://predict.fun/market/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026) and Senate control (link: https://predict.fun/market/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026). The probability of the Democratic Party winning the House is currently at 95%, up 2.5% over the past seven days; the probability of winning the Senate is 73%, up 8% over the same period. Based on current forecasts, the House is clearly leaning toward the Democrats, while the Senate has become the key battleground for whether the Republicans can avoid losing control of both chambers.
Senate seat forecast: Republicans may suffer a net loss of at least 6 seats
In addition to control of Congress, prediction markets also assess how many Senate seats the Republican Party will ultimately retain.
In the Republican Senate seats prediction market (https://predict.fun/market/republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927), the probability of Republicans holding 47 seats or fewer has reached 51%, rising by approximately 10 percentage points over the past seven days; the probability of securing 48 seats is 16%, 49 seats is 12%, and 50 seats is 9%. The combined probability of the three outcomes below 50 seats totals approximately 79%, indicating a clear market expectation that Republicans will lose their Senate majority.
The Republican Party currently holds 53 seats in the Senate, while the Democratic Party holds 47. If the Republicans ultimately drop to 47 seats or fewer, it would mean a net loss of at least 6 seats. In contrast, the Democrats would need only a net gain of 4 seats to secure a stable Senate majority.
This means that the market's current favored outcome is not only a narrow Democratic takeover of the Senate, but also potential Republican losses in several incumbent seats, allowing Democrats to further expand their advantage.
So, which states might the Democratic Party gain additional seats from?
Key state races: Texas, Ohio, and others become Republican defensive priorities
The Senate seats that the Republican Party may lose are primarily concentrated in key districts such as Texas, Ohio, Maine, and Alaska. According to the latest data from prediction markets, Democratic candidates hold a certain advantage in the races for these previously Republican-held seats.
Among these, the Texas Senate election (link: https://predict.fun/market/texas-senate-election-winner) is particularly noteworthy. Democrat candidate James Talarico has a 74% chance of winning, significantly ahead of Republican candidate Ken Paxton’s 27%. Texas has long been a key Republican stronghold; if the Democrats ultimately win here, they will directly take a Senate seat from the Republicans.
A similar situation exists in Ohio (link: https://predict.fun/market/ohio-senate-election-winner), where Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown has a 73% chance of winning, and Republican candidate Jon Husted has a 28% chance.
In addition to Texas and Ohio, Maine and Alaska are also key targets for the Democratic Party in its effort to gain new Senate seats. All four of these states are currently held by Republicans; if the Democrats can win all of them and retain their existing seats, they could achieve a net gain of four seats and take control of the Senate. Additionally, Kansas and Iowa are potential opportunities, but the Democrats must also defend their existing seats, such as in Michigan.
However, there remains uncertainty about whether the Democratic Party can win simultaneously in multiple competitive states. If the Republican Party holds onto just some of these key seats, it could prevent the Democrats from gaining a Senate majority. Therefore, although prediction markets currently favor the Democrats, the final control of the Senate will depend on the election outcomes in these key states.
Can Trump still hold onto the Senate?
Although the prediction markets currently favor the Democratic Party, the election outcomes in several key states remain uncertain. If the Republican Party can hold onto some of its competitive seats, it still has a chance to retain its Senate majority and avoid simultaneous control of both chambers of Congress shifting to the other party.
The midterm election results are also significant for the crypto industry. Regulatory legislation such as the U.S. Crypto Market Structure Act still requires congressional action, and the new power dynamics in Congress may influence the pace of deliberation on these bills. However, a Democratic victory does not necessarily mean a tougher stance on crypto policy; the ultimate direction will depend on the positions and cooperation of both parties on regulatory issues.
It remains uncertain whether Trump can retain control of the Senate, but it is clear that regardless of the election outcome, he is likely to face a Congress that is harder to gain support from over the next two years.