U.S. Market Declines as Intel and AMD Rise Amid AI Chip Sector Shift

U.S. stocks reopened after the long holiday, but the market did not immediately continue its previous risk appetite.

On September 8, BiyaPay market data showed that the three major U.S. stock indices closed lower: the Dow Jones fell 1.2%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.3%. At first glance, this appeared to be a routine correction; however, the more interesting development was the clear divergence within the semiconductor sector as the indices weakened. Intel surged approximately 9%, AMD rose nearly 6%, and Qualcomm, Broadcom, and ASML also posted varying gains. In contrast, NVIDIA retreated about 2%, while Micron and SanDisk, among other storage-focused companies, underperformed.

This market condition最容易让人产生错觉. Looking only at the index, you might think tech stocks are cooling down; looking only at individual stocks, you’ll find capital hasn’t left AI and chips—it’s simply shifting rapidly between different sectors. Especially when oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, Fed expectations, and the AI supply chain all simultaneously influence the market, focusing on just one aspect can easily cause you to miss the true signals.

When analyzing this type of market movement, it’s more intuitive to observe multiple assets together. For example, in the BiyaPay app, you can simultaneously monitor U.S. stocks like Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, and NVIDIA, while also tracking changes in Hong Kong stocks, BTC, ETH, gold, and crude oil. As a global all-in-one asset allocation platform, BiyaPay covers diverse asset scenarios including digital assets, U.S. and Hong Kong stocks, and fiat currency exchanges, making it better suited for observing price movements across different markets. In such highly volatile conditions, the key isn’t chasing daily price swings—but understanding where capital is flowing: interest rates, inflation, AI-related demand, or risk appetite.

This indicates that the funds have not simply withdrawn from AI and chips, but are instead reallocating to other directions.

Over the past period, U.S. tech trading has been heavily concentrated on keywords such as NVIDIA, AI servers, memory chips, and capital expenditures on computing power. However, as oil prices rise again, U.S. Treasury yields increase, and the Fed’s September meeting approaches, market tolerance for high-valuation assets will decline. At this time, capital tends to favor two types of companies: those with confirmed orders or customer validation, and those with clearer profit recovery fundamentals.

Intel, Qualcomm, and AMD have been pulled back into the spotlight by capital, precisely due to this logic.

This round of pressure on U.S. equities stems primarily from macroeconomic factors.

Brent crude briefly neared and briefly surpassed the $100 mark, while WTI rose above $90. Rising oil prices could reignite inflation expectations, and if inflation becomes more persistent, the Fed will find it harder to pivot quickly toward easing. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to around 4.8%, and the 30-year yield remains elevated. For U.S. equities, the combined pressures of oil prices, inflation, and interest rates are hitting valuations first.

Technically, tech stocks should be more sensitive, as many high-growth companies are valued based on future cash flows; higher interest rates reduce the attractiveness of distant profits when discounted to present value. However, this time, the Nasdaq’s decline was smaller than the Dow’s, and semiconductors even strengthened against the trend—indicating that the market isn’t broadly selling off tech, but rather undergoing a structural shift.

The real question in funding is who can clearly articulate growth in a high-interest-rate environment, and whose price increases, orders, customers, and product roadmap are more likely to translate into profits.

Intel's recent surge is seemingly triggered by price and earnings expectations.

DigiTimes reported that Intel may raise PC CPU prices again in October by approximately 10%. This news drove Intel’s stock sharply higher, making it one of the top-performing stocks in the S&P 500 that day. It should be noted that Intel has not issued an official comment on the report, so it cannot yet be considered confirmed guidance. However, the market’s willingness to respond positively suggests investors are closely watching whether Intel’s pricing power has returned.

This is very important.

Over the past few years, Intel’s biggest challenge wasn’t lack of revenue, but rather persistent pressure on margins, manufacturing investments, and competitive forces that weighed on its valuation. Now, if CPU prices rise, server demand improves, and cost pressures are gradually passed on, the market will reassess its potential for profit recovery. Added to this is the growing demand from AI data centers for server CPUs, interconnects, and infrastructure—transforming Intel from a traditional PC cyclical stock into one priced within the AI infrastructure value chain.

Of course, Intel's logic has not yet reached a point of complete reversal. What truly determines how far the valuation recovery can go is not a single 9% daily rise, but whether Intel can demonstrate over the next few quarters that price increases will not significantly suppress demand, whether its data center business can continue to improve, and whether its advanced process and foundry businesses can alleviate market concerns.

Qualcomm's recent strength is driven more by industry growth factors.

On September 8, Qualcomm officially announced a multi-generation product collaboration with Amazon, focusing on developing customized chips and optical interconnect solutions for large-scale AI data centers, with key emphasis on AI inference and optical connectivity up to 1.6 Tbps. The market is not only paying attention to Amazon as a client, but also to whether Qualcomm can leverage this partnership to establish a second growth curve beyond mobile chips.

In the past, Qualcomm's core focus was on smartphones, modems, and mobile computing. But as AI enters the inference stage, data centers now require not only GPUs but also more efficient inference chips, low-power computing, and high-speed interconnects. If Qualcomm can leverage its mobile-era advantages in energy efficiency and apply them to data centers, it has the opportunity to move beyond the traditional smartphone cycle.

However, it’s important to clarify that the so-called potential scale of up to $60 billion does not equate to confirmed order revenue. Some reports indicate this figure is tied to Amazon’s stock warrants and future procurement terms; whether it can be fully converted into Qualcomm’s revenue depends on subsequent product deliveries, customer procurement timelines, and the competitive landscape. The market’s short-term rally reflects a revaluation of Qualcomm’s entry into the AI data center space, not the full recognition of a decade’s worth of revenue.

AMD rose, primarily driven by sentiment around AI chips and the server supply chain.

AMD has always occupied a delicate position. It is not the absolute leader in AI like NVIDIA, but it is not without presence either. The market’s focus on AMD centers on two key points: whether its MI series AI accelerators can continue to secure orders from major clients, and whether its server CPUs and data center business can sustain their share growth.

When Qualcomm secures a partnership with Amazon and Intel regains pricing power, AMD will also be compared in the same context. Beyond NVIDIA, who else can secure a large enough share of the expanding AI infrastructure market? This is the source of AMD’s resilience.

But AMD’s challenge lies here: the market is not giving it a certainty premium, but rather a follower premium. Follower rallies often rise quickly but are also prone to pullbacks due to order timing, gross margins, supply chain issues, and software ecosystem challenges. Therefore, AMD’s price increase should not be judged solely by daily gains—it must be evaluated based on whether AI revenue share, customer expansion, and product iteration continue to materialize over time.

What’s most noteworthy in this round of semiconductor divergence isn’t who’s rising or falling, but that AI trading is shifting from a single龙头 narrative to a more granular industry chain pricing model.

In the early stage, the market favored companies with the highest certainty, making NVIDIA, TSMC, memory chips, and AI servers the main themes. However, as valuations rise, capital begins seeking new narrative frameworks—for example, Intel is trading on price and earnings recovery, Qualcomm on AI inference and new entry points in data centers, AMD on alternative elasticity beyond NVIDIA, and ASML and semiconductor equipment on the expansion cycle of advanced process technologies.

It's still AI, but the position has changed.

This also explains why semiconductors can rise even when the broader market is falling. The market isn’t ignoring interest rates—it’s seeking technology assets that can better prove their value in a high-interest-rate environment. As long as AI capital expenditures aren’t disproven, chip stocks won’t simply exit the stage; they’ll merely rotate among different segments.

In the short term, the semiconductor sector’s rally despite market headwinds sends a signal that the AI and chip themes have not disappeared—rather, capital is beginning to seek new anchors beyond overcrowded trades. NVIDIA’s decline does not signify a retreat from AI; Intel, Qualcomm, and AMD’s gains do not indicate a full-scale market shift. More accurately, the market is rebalancing pricing power within the AI value chain.

The following variables are crucial.

First is the U.S. August CPI. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule, the August CPI will be released on September 11. With oil prices already rising significantly, stronger-than-expected inflation data would further increase pressure on the Fed ahead of its September meeting. Second is the FOMC meeting on September 15–16. The market currently prices in a high likelihood of a rate hike in September, and the interest rate path will directly impact tech stock valuations. Third is the follow-up orders in the AI supply chain—collaborations between Qualcomm and Amazon, expectations of Intel price increases, and AMD’s server demand—all require further validation in upcoming earnings reports and guidance.

Therefore, this round of semiconductor price increases resembles a structural revaluation rather than merely an emotional rebound.

Rising oil prices and higher U.S. Treasury yields would typically weigh on risk assets; however, the semiconductor sector’s strength despite these headwinds indicates that capital is still willing to pay for AI infrastructure—just with greater selectivity. Companies that will continue to outperform in the future may not be the ones with the most flashy narratives, but rather those that can effectively connect customers, orders, pricing, and profit margins.

The U.S. stock market remains under pressure, but AI chips show no signs of slowing down. The real question isn’t whether AI chip stocks can still rise, but who will prove that this wave of AI investment can ultimately generate cash flow.