BlockBeats report: On September 5, stronger-than-expected U.S. August employment data triggered market reassessments of potential Fed rate hikes, but Wall Street risk assets showed no significant panic.
Data shows increased resilience in the labor market, prompting traders to raise their expectations for a Fed rate hike at the September 16 meeting. U.S. Treasuries were sold off, the dollar strengthened, and the S&P 500 fell on Friday but still posted a weekly gain.
Unlike previous rate hikes, which often triggered capital outflows, this round of bond market adjustments has not yet spread to other risk assets. Credit spreads remain low, with limited pressure on corporate bonds and equity markets. J.P. Morgan noted that liquidity in U.S. Treasuries has clearly deteriorated, but similar strains have not yet emerged in corporate bond ETFs or equity futures markets. Market resilience stems primarily from economic growth and corporate earnings, particularly as artificial intelligence investments continue to drive technology firms to maintain substantial capital expenditures.
Analysts note that the current market is more focused on whether yields will rise rapidly, rather than on the single employment data point itself. The market's attention will subsequently shift to inflation data and whether the Fed will reconsider its rate hike path due to inflationary pressures. If yields continue to rise sharply, investors may be forced to reduce their risk exposure.