Crude Oil & Indices
At the start of this weekend, tensions between the U.S. and Iran continued to escalate.
On Friday, U.S. officials revealed that Trump has ordered a new large-scale strike against Iran, with operations potentially beginning over the weekend and energy infrastructure possibly targeted. Iran, meanwhile, claimed that drones attacked the Ahmad Al-Jabir Air Base within Kuwait, and that two oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. escort were also struck. Neither claim was confirmed by Kuwait or U.S. authorities at the time.
On Sunday morning at 10 a.m., Trump abruptly halted the operation, stating that, at the request of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and others, the United States was canceling the planned strike on the condition that all parties quickly reach an agreement and Israel joins this commitment.
On TradeXYZ, crude oil contracts rapidly dropped from around $85.5 to below $83 following the news, then continued falling to around $79.
The S&P 500 rose from around 7,470 to above 7,500, briefly reaching 7,535.
By the latter part of the weekend, both CL and Brent contracts fell more than 8%, while the S&P 500 rose approximately 0.8%. Crude oil reversed earlier accumulated war and supply disruption risks, while the equity index directly traded the cancellation of widespread sanctions.
However, the agreement Trump mentioned has not yet been finalized. He stated that an arrangement regarding the Strait of Hormuz is close to being reached, and Iran’s Foreign Minister also indicated that consultations with Oman have entered their final stage; however, a spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized that discussions are focused on establishing new shipping routes, not directly on negotiations regarding the closure or opening of the strait. The question of whether vessels would need to pay fees remains unresolved.
Oil prices near $79 have already reflected the cancellation of the airstrike but have not yet accounted for the full resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Precious metals
Due to the easing of U.S.-Iran tensions, spot gold opened above $4,080. In subsequent trading windows on TradeXYZ, gold rose approximately 0.5% and silver increased by about 1%. Both assets declined after futures opened but rebounded; their current gains are significantly narrower compared to the weekend.
Individual stock
Most individual stocks rose over the weekend, with technology, communications, consumer, and crypto-related stocks experiencing varying degrees of recovery.
The storage sector performed strongly, with an overall gain of approximately 3.5%. SK Hynix's Korean shares rose early in the session but then pulled back, showing relative weakness compared to other stocks in the same sector.
The divergence among the Mag7 is concentrated in Apple.
Apart from Apple, the other six companies saw subsequent gains of approximately 1.4% to 2.0%, while Apple rose only about 0.4%. Although Apple’s late July earnings report exceeded expectations, growth in its services segment slowed, performance in the Chinese market weakened, and supply chain constraints weighed on its price movement over the weekend.
The market is currently choosing to believe in Trump’s de-escalation while still maintaining caution against a potential resurgence of conflict. As long as no further war-related signal emerges, oil’s risk premium will remain under pressure, and equities and tech stocks will continue to benefit from this brief recovery window.