U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Ends, Tesla Reports Earnings: Crypto Market Outlook for the Week

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Market volatility surged early in the week as the crypto market rebounded on Friday. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices lower and boosted risk appetite, driving Bitcoin higher. However, the trend reversed after Iran attacked vessels and the U.S. seized a tanker. With the ceasefire over, traders are now monitoring whether risk appetite can withstand renewed tensions. According to Luke Nolan of CoinShares, Bitcoin’s performance above $74,000 will be critical.
CoinDesk reports:

The cryptocurrency market entered the new week with increased volatility after last Friday's rally.

After news of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, oil prices fell and risk assets, including Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, rose. However, this trend reversed on Saturday, when Iran fired on vessels attempting to pass through the strait, and the United States seized an oil tanker flying the Iranian flag on Sunday.

As the ceasefire agreement expires mid-week, traders will monitor whether risk-on sentiment can withstand a new wave of energy shocks.

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The technical level to watch is clear. Luke Nolan, CoinShares’ senior Ethereum researcher, told CoinDesk that the key to the next move is whether Bitcoin can hold at the ETF cost level near $74,000.

"With the reopening of the Hormuz Port, oil prices have fallen and stock markets have rebounded to historical highs, driving cryptocurrencies higher," Nolan said. "The key now is whether Bitcoin can hold its ETF cost basis (around $74,000), which would confirm the shift in risk appetite evident in the capital flows. Over the past three trading days, ETF inflows have turned positive; if this trend accelerates, it could further support Bitcoin’s price rise."

If this price level can effectively hold above $74,000 before the ceasefire deadline, and ETFs experience continued inflows for a fourth consecutive trading day, the rotation theory will be validated. If the price breaks below this level, volatility in this sector will resurface.

Watch Guide

(All times are Eastern Time)

  • Cryptocurrency
    • April 30: The comment period for the proposed rulemaking notice on prediction markets by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) closed.
  • Macro
    • April 20 at 7:30 AM: Canada's March consumer price index year-over-year increase (previous value: 1.8%); core price index year-over-year increase (previous value: 2.3%)
    • April 21 at 1:30 PM: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller delivers a speech Modernizing Reserve Bank Operations at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.
    • April 22 at 1:00 AM: UK consumer price index year-over-year increase for March (previous value: 3.0%); core inflation rate (previous value: 3.2%)
    • April 22 at 7:30 PM: Japan S&P Global Services PMI Preliminary (previous value 53); Manufacturing PMI (previous value 51.6)
    • April 23 at 7:30 AM: Canada's March Producer Price Index year-over-year increase (previous value 5.4%); month-over-month increase (previous value 0.4%)
    • April 23 at 7:30 AM: Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18 in the United States (previous value: 207,000)
    • April 23, 8:45 AM: U.S. S&P Global April Manufacturing PMI (previous value: 52.3); Services PMI (previous value: 49.8)
    • April 23 at 3:30 PM: U.S. Federal Reserve balance sheet as of April 22 (previous: $6.71 trillion)
    • April 23 at 6:30 PM: Japan's March consumer price index rose year-over-year (previous value 1.3%); core consumer price index rose year-over-year (previous value 1.6%)
    • April 24 at 3:00 AM: Germany Ifo Business Climate Index for April (previous value 86.4)
    • April 24 at 9:00 AM: The final estimate for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April in the United States is projected at 47.6 (previous value: 53.3)
  • Yield (estimated based on FactSet data, if available)
    • April 22: Tesla (TSLA), pre-market trading, $0.3
    • April 22: CME Group, pre-market trading, $3.29
    • April 23: Nasdaq (NDAQ), pre-market trading, $0.93

Token events

  • Governance voting and calls
    • SafeDAO is allocating 5 million SAFE tokens to fund a six-month staking reward program and interface development for Safenet Beta. Voting ends on April 20.
    • Unlock DAO is voting on the payment plan to compensate members for their contributions to the collaborative platform during March and April. Voting ends on April 20.
    • RootstockCollective DAO is voting on a $20,000 USDRIF grant to fund a security audit for TYKORA Prize Vaults, a zero-loss savings protocol. Voting ends on April 20.
    • ENS DAO is voting on whether to update its DNSSEC implementation. Repointing algorithm 7 to a previously patched contract adds proper padding validation to correct an oversight in a prior security update. Voting ends on April 21.
    • Decentraland DAO is voting to completely overhaul its transparency infrastructure, including assigning designated owners for all record systems, establishing strict maintenance standards, and creating a unified portal for easy community access. Voting ends on April 22.
    • The Telcoin Platform Committee DAO is allocating votes to authorize Thailand Telecom to allocate €50 million to hire a strategic telecom advisor to promote GSMA standards. Voting closes on April 22.
    • Aavegotchi DAO is voting to appoint nine multisig signers for the 2026-2027 term, maintaining a threshold of at least five out of nine passing security reviews, setting quarterly compensation at 1,000 GHST, and establishing a succession plan. Voting ends on April 22.
    • Lightchain AI DAO is currently voting on considering the addition of an optional Moonpay fiat on-ramp. This AI chat session primarily focused on feasibility and risks, but no funds have been allocated or implementation approved yet. The vote will end on April 23.
    • Gitcoin DAO is voting to recover the remaining unclaimed fees from the discontinued Public Goods Network (PGN). Voting ends on April 24.
    • Parallel DAO is currently voting on whether to initiate the cessation of its V2 Euro stablecoin issuance by pausing most new loan issuances and implementing a 50% penalty lending rate to encourage users to repay existing debt. The vote ends on April 24.
  • Unlock
    • April 20: LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 5.35% of its circulating supply, valued at $48.33 million.
    • April 22: Undeads Games (UDS) will unlock 13.47% of its circulating supply, valued at $37.09 million.
    • April 23: Toncoin (TON) will unlock 1.47% of its circulating supply, valued at $49.75 million.
    • April 25: Humanity Protocol (H) will unlock 4.02% of its circulating supply, valued at approximately $11.88 million.
    • April 25: Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock 0.39% of its circulating supply, valued at $15.6 million.
    • April 26: Plasma (XPL) will release 3.73% of its circulating supply, valued at $10.1 million.
  • Token issuance
    • April 21: The OpenGradient (OPG) token generation event occurred.
    • April 21: The CHIP token for USDAI is launched.
    • April 22: The Wingbits (WINGS) token generation event occurred.

Meeting

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