U.S. Imposes 10%-12.5% Tariffs on 60 Economies; OPEC+ May Increase Output by 188,000 Bpd

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1. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on the issuance of the "15th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development." The notice mentions promoting the localized development of biodiesel, non-grain fuel ethanol, and sustainable aviation fuel, improving the raw material supply and industry standard systems, and advancing their substitution applications in the transportation sector.

2. The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium on party building and regulatory work, emphasizing the need to deepen reforms to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of systems. Implement and refine all measures of the comprehensive reform of financing and investment, and better leverage the functions of the stock, fund, bond, and futures markets.

3. According to Mysteel, as of this week (July 23), the spot inventory of lithium ores among 32 sampled lithium ore traders amounted to 90,000 metric tons, a decrease of 7,000 metric tons week-over-week, including 43,000 metric tons of sellable inventory, down 9,000 metric tons week-over-week.

4. Inspectors anticipate that the average yield of hard red spring wheat in northwestern and north-central North Dakota will be 48.0 bushels per acre, higher than last year’s estimate of 47.1 bushels and above the five-year average of 43.8 bushels.

5. Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Iran is determined to defend its national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national interests and security against foreign aggression; any party involved in any form of military aggression against Iran will be held responsible for the consequences of its actions.

6. The United States has imposed tariffs of 10%-12.5% on 60 economies, effective on the 24th.

7. Three sources said OPEC+ may decide at its meeting on August 2 to increase the September oil production quota by approximately 188,000 barrels per day.

1. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on the issuance of the "15th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development." The notice states that by 2030, total renewable energy consumption will reach approximately 1.8 billion tons of standard coal. Biomethanol, non-grain fuel ethanol, and sustainable aviation fuel will be developed in accordance with local conditions, with improvements to the raw material supply and industry standard systems to promote their substitution applications in the transportation sector.

2. According to Xinhua News, the Ministry of Commerce stated that China and the United States are seeking feedback on tariff reduction arrangements and will move swiftly to implement them.

3. The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium on party building and regulatory work, emphasizing the need to deepen reforms to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of systems. Implement and refine all measures of the comprehensive reform of financing and investment, and better leverage the functions of stock, fund, bond, and futures markets. Strengthen policy preparedness to respond to global market volatility and cross-border risk transmission, and build robust barriers against external risk shocks.

4. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Iran is determined to defend its national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national interests and security against foreign aggression; any party involved in any form of military aggression against Iran will be held responsible for the consequences of its actions.

5. Last week, the number of Americans filing for initial unemployment benefits dropped significantly, indicating that the U.S. labor market remains steady, and Fed officials must continue focusing on curbing inflation. The U.S. Department of Labor stated on Thursday that initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18 fell by 22,000 to 187,000, below the expected 212,000.

6. To maintain adequate liquidity in the banking system, on July 24, 2026, the People’s Bank of China will conduct a 500 billion RMB MLF operation with a one-year maturity, using a fixed-amount, interest-rate bidding, multiple-price winning approach.

7. On the 23rd, the Office of the United States Trade Representative announced a notice stating that, pursuant to Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, it will impose tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on dozens of countries and regions under the pretext of "forced labor," replacing the upcoming expiration of global import tariffs. The new tariffs will take effect on the 24th, Eastern Time. The United States has exempted products such as oil, natural gas, fertilizers, and food from these tariffs.

1. As of the Thursday 23:00 close, the majority of domestic futures main contracts rose, with fuel oil and styrene (EB) up over 3%, and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), benzene, asphalt, para-xylene, synthetic rubber, and ethylene glycol (EG) up over 2%. On the downside, glass fell over 1%, and soda ash declined nearly 1%.

2. The main contract for U.S. crude oil closed up 6.37% at $92.36 per barrel; the main contract for Brent crude oil rose 4.91% to $94.61 per barrel.

3. International precious metals futures generally closed lower; COMEX gold futures fell 2.40% to $4,052.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures dropped 3.99% to $57.90 per ounce.

4. Most base metals in London ended lower; LME nickel rose 0.35% to $17,295.0 per ton, LME aluminum fell 0.08% to $3,190.0 per ton, LME zinc fell 0.32% to $3,580.0 per ton, LME lead fell 0.50% to $1,887.0 per ton, LME tin fell 0.88% to $53,450.0 per ton, and LME copper fell 1.75% to $13,566.0 per ton.

1. According to Mysteel, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 66.9%, down 0.9% month-over-month. The daily average raw coal production was 1.503 million tons, down 19,000 tons month-over-month, and raw coal inventories stood at 4.292 million tons, down 106,000 tons month-over-month.

2. According to Mysteel data, for the week ending July 23, rebar production was 2.0144 million tons, up by 46,000 tons; rebar factory inventory was 1.9169 million tons, down by 10,400 tons; rebar social inventory was 5.0601 million tons, up by 62,600 tons; rebar apparent demand was 1.9622 million tons, down by 82,200 tons.

3. This week, Mysteel’s Coal and Coke Division surveyed the profit per ton of coke at independent coking plants nationwide, with an average national profit of 18 yuan/ton; the average profit for secondary-grade coke in Shanxi was 33 yuan/ton, 45 yuan/ton in Shandong, 20 yuan/ton for metallurgical coke in Inner Mongolia, and 62 yuan/ton for secondary-grade coke in Hebei.

4. World Steel Association: Global crude steel production increased by 1.7% year-over-year in June 2026, reaching 155.7 million tons. China’s crude steel production in June 2026 increased by 0.4% year-over-year, reaching 83.7 million tons.

1. According to Longzhong Information, as of July 23, 2026, the inventory level of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.285 million metric tons, an increase of 28,000 metric tons from the previous period, up 1.2% month-over-month. This period saw a buildup in pulp inventory at the main port samples, reversing the previous five-week trend of inventory drawdowns.

2. According to Longzhong Information, as of July 23, 2026, the total inventory of soda ash in China reached 1.7813 million tons, an increase of 0.009 million tons from Monday, up 0.51%. Domestic soda ash production was 0.7615 million tons, up 0.0116 million tons from the previous period, an increase of 1.55%.

3. According to the production cost calculation model from Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit for float glass fueled by natural gas was -185.80 RMB/ton, down 10.71 RMB/ton week-over-week; for coal-fueled float glass, the weekly average profit was -54.51 RMB/ton, down 13.86 RMB/ton week-over-week; for petroleum coke-fueled float glass, the weekly average profit was -205.76 RMB/ton, down 8.00 RMB/ton week-over-week.

4. Enterprise Singapore (ESG): For the week ending July 22, Singapore’s fuel oil inventories rose by 345,000 barrels to a three-week high of 19.46 million barrels. Middle distillate inventories fell by 593,000 barrels to a three-week low of 8.715 million barrels. Light distillate inventories dropped by 360,000 barrels to a three-year low of 11.468 million barrels.

5. Sources say that LNG buyers from Qatar and the UAE, due to risks in the Strait of Hormuz, will seek lower prices and stronger supply guarantees.

6. According to Longzhong Information, as of July 23, 2026, the national daily output of float glass was 1.435 million metric tons, a decrease of 0.69% compared to July 16. For the week of July 17–23, 2026, the national float glass output totaled 10.13 million metric tons, down 0.65% week-over-week and 8.54% year-over-year. As of July 23, 2026, the total inventory of float glass among sampled enterprises nationwide stood at 75.29 million standard boxes, down 817,000 standard boxes week-over-week (-1.07%) but up 21.64% year-over-year. The inventory turnover period was 34.1 days, a decrease of 0.4 days from the previous period.

7. According to traders familiar with the situation, at least two Asian crude oil buyers are negotiating with Saudi Aramco to reroute oil shipments around Africa following Houthi attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea.

8. EIA Natural Gas Report: As of the week ending July 17, the total U.S. natural gas inventory stood at 3,056 billion cubic feet, an increase of 32 billion cubic feet from the previous week, a decrease of 16 billion cubic feet compared to the same period last year, representing a year-over-year decline of 0.5%, while being 183 billion cubic feet higher than the five-year average, an increase of 6.4%.

9. Market News: Three sources say OPEC+ may decide at its August 2 meeting to raise September oil production quotas by approximately 188,000 barrels per day.

1. According to Jingjiwang, the Ganzi Prefecture Ecological Environment Bureau recently accepted and announced the environmental impact assessment documents for the "Yajiang Sinow Lithium Mine Development Project" by Yajiang Sinow Mining Development Co., Ltd. This marks a key milestone toward production for the highly publicized "extremely valuable lithium mine," with a restructuring consideration exceeding RMB 6.4 billion.

2. According to SMM, domestic cast aluminum alloy ingot social inventories in China decreased to 25,900 tons this week, a reduction of 3,800 tons from last week. Inventories have now declined for eight consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decrease of 37,000 tons. However, the rate of inventory reduction has further slowed compared to earlier periods.

3. According to Mysteel, World Metals and Alloys FZC announced on July 22, 2026, that due to the continued deterioration of market conditions, the company has decided to implement a series of operational adjustments to its manganese ore business portfolio, effective immediately.

4. According to Mysteel, as of this week (July 23), the spot inventory of lithium ore among 32 sampled lithium ore traders amounted to 90,000 metric tons, a decrease of 7,000 metric tons week-over-week, of which tradable inventory stood at 43,000 metric tons, down 9,000 metric tons week-over-week.

5. Reuters survey: The zinc market is expected to see a surplus of 92,546 tons in 2026, rising to 161,000 tons in 2027. The aluminum market will face a supply deficit of 1 million tons, with balance expected to be restored by 2027. The copper market will experience a supply surplus of 112,000 tons; the projected surplus for 2027 is 50,000 tons.

6. Freeport-McMoRan: Second-quarter combined production totaled 786 million pounds of copper, 192,000 ounces of gold, and 23 million pounds of molybdenum. Combined copper and gold production is expected to exceed sales in 2026.

7. According to SMM, during its second-quarter earnings call, Freeport-McMoRan disclosed that the underground Block Cave project at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is progressing as expected. The company now anticipates that Grasberg’s production capacity will recover to approximately 65% in the second half of 2026, rise to about 80% by mid-2027, and approach full capacity by the end of 2027.

8. According to CCTV, in the first half of this year, China's automobile exports reached RMB 635.82 billion, a 48.3% year-over-year increase, with sales to more than 210 countries and regions worldwide. Among these, new energy vehicle exports amounted to RMB 360.68 billion, up 68.7% year-over-year.

Lithium carbonate has entered an upward correction, but medium-term concerns remain.

Guangda Futures stated that, as of the latest update on the 23rd, the net inflow of funds into the main contract of lithium carbonate reached approximately RMB 500 million for the day, with short covering and new long positions reinforcing each other. Since July, lithium carbonate has undergone a significant correction, dropping from above RMB 170,000 to RMB 137,000—a decline of nearly 20%. The expectation of future oversupply may already be fully priced in; when positive signals such as production cuts and inventory reductions emerge, highly profitable shorts opt to close their positions en masse, triggering a positive feedback loop in the market. In the short term, the rebound may continue due to momentum. Significant capital inflows and a strengthening spot basis both point to a relatively strong market structure. However, medium-term concerns cannot be ignored. First, the authenticity of multiple reports on production cuts and inventory reductions that surfaced on the afternoon of the 22nd has yet to be verified; if these are later disproven, the sentiment premium could quickly dissipate. Second, the core market logic remains the tug-of-war between “strong fundamentals and weak expectations”—pressure from future supply increases (such as the restart of Jianxiwo and lithium ore arrivals from Zimbabwe) persists. The battle between bulls and bears around the RMB 150,000 level may intensify once again.

2. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have spread to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, causing fuel oil to strengthen in line with rising crude oil prices.

Hua Wen Futures noted that geopolitical risks in the Middle East have spread to the Strait of Mandeb, causing fuel oil to strengthen in line with rising crude oil prices, with a peak gain exceeding 3% on July 23.

1. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have spread to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, strengthening oil prices on the cost side. Shipping tracking data shows that, due to warnings from Houthi rebels in Yemen for vessels to avoid Saudi ports, four more tankers changed course in the Red Sea on Wednesday, with two rerouting to the Suez Canal as their new destination. On the 20th, a Houthi spokesperson issued a statement announcing an immediate maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, based on the principle of “blockade against blockade.” According to Kpler data, daily oil transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait averages approximately 7.4 million barrels, accounting for about 7% of global crude production.

2. On the supply side, the Middle East is a major global supplier of high-sulfur fuel oil, with approximately one-third of China’s high-sulfur fuel oil imports originating from the region; disruptions in the strait have led to a decline in high-sulfur shipments from the Middle East. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, and Russia, the world’s largest exporter of high-sulfur fuel oil, has seen its refineries targeted, with estimated high-sulfur shipments for July around 3 million metric tons—down 14.5 million metric tons month-over-month and 23 million metric tons year-over-year. On the inventory side, as of the week ending July 24, Singapore’s residual fuel oil inventories rose by 345,000 barrels to 19.18 million barrels; as of the week ending July 13, Fujairah’s fuel oil inventories stood at 7.262 million barrels, down 53,000 barrels week-over-week. Fuel oil prices closely follow crude oil trends; monitor developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations.

3. Price trends are closely tied to oil prices; monitor developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations. In the short term, high-sulfur fuel oil futures prices may continue to fluctuate strongly in line with crude oil, but be cautious of the risk of a significant decline if the U.S. and Iran reach a new ceasefire agreement.

1. China's iron ore inventory at 45 ports as of July 23 is pending;

2. Pending China's breeding and raising profit for self-bred and externally purchased piglets as of July 24;

3. Pending China's national main oil mill soybean crushing volume and operating rate through July 24.