BlockBeats news, on September 5, according to data from the American Automobile Association, the U.S. retail diesel price rose for the first time above $5.85 per gallon on Friday, surpassing the historical high set in 2022. The average gasoline price also increased to $4.15 per gallon. Continuously rising fuel prices are putting increasing pressure on the Trump administration’s prior political pledge to lower energy prices and reduce the cost of living.
The rise in diesel prices is rapidly transmitting to the real economy. The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects farmers' fuel costs to increase by nearly 30% by 2026; food and logistics companies are also beginning to face higher transportation costs. Meanwhile, U.S. diesel inventories have fallen to historic lows, and over the four weeks ending August 28, average daily U.S. diesel exports reached 1.77 million barrels, up approximately 31% year-over-year, further intensifying domestic supply pressures.
Supply-side improvements are also difficult to achieve in the short term. Approximately 5 million barrels per day of global refining capacity are currently offline, with ongoing constraints on global refined product supplies due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, damage to Middle Eastern refineries, and attacks on Russian refineries. Starting in October, the U.S. will also face seasonal pressures from harvest season, winter heating demand, and refinery maintenance.
In response to rising fuel prices, the Trump administration has convened executives from refining companies this week, urging the industry to increase production and considering the construction of new refineries. However, building new refineries cannot address short-term supply gaps, and more direct policy options, such as limiting diesel exports, remain controversial.
Less than two months remain until the U.S. congressional midterm elections, and diesel prices have risen 56% since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, becoming a political risk the Trump administration can no longer ignore. If fuel prices continue to rise, Trump’s previously emphasized policy of “reducing energy costs” could instead become a source of political pressure ahead of the midterms.