Foreign media report that the momentum for the U.S. Crypto Market Structure Act, CLARITY, is waning in Congress. Former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti stated that after recent discussions with lawmakers and congressional staff in Washington, he concluded that the bill has clearly lost support.
Internal support in Congress is weakening.
Mariotti said that several members of Congress or their staff directly told him that the CLARITY bill "is dead." This statement intensified skepticism about the bill's prospects.
The CLARITY Act was originally intended to establish clearer regulatory divisions and rules for the U.S. cryptocurrency market, but disagreements within Congress over specific arrangements have slowed its progress.
The Senate vote takes place on September 15.
Although pessimistic sentiment is rising, the bill has not been formally terminated. The Senate still plans to hold a procedural cloture vote on September 15, which will determine whether the bill can move forward.
Meanwhile, the time available in the House of Representatives is shrinking. The two full weeks originally scheduled for September have been canceled, leaving lawmakers with only 14 effective working days before the recess for the October election.
The House time window is narrowing
If the Senate moves forward with the bill, the House still needs to complete its discussions, reconcile the text, and hold a final vote, significantly increasing the time pressure. Senator Cynthia Lummis has also urged Congress to take action before the end of this session.
As progress in Congress has stalled, U.S. regulators have not waited for legislation to be completed. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is advancing its own regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, while the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is developing rules related to crypto assets and prediction markets.
Predicted market probability declines
Confidence in the bill is also waning within the industry. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, described the bill as a "zombie," suggesting that while it has not been formally terminated, its progress will continue to be delayed.
Contracts on Polymarket related to the CLARITY bill currently show a 13% to 18% probability of the bill becoming law by 2026, a significant decline from over 80% earlier this year.