ChainThink reports that on July 24, according to Fortune, the U.S. CLARITY Act for Digital Asset Markets has encountered obstacles in its progress.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the bill is not expected to be voted on before the August recess.
Polymarket data shows that, as of July 24, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year is approximately 37%, down from a peak above 80% earlier this spring.
The CLARITY Act aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, but conflicts of interest surrounding President Trump and his family's cryptocurrency businesses have become the primary obstacle in legislative negotiations.
The Democratic Party has called for the inclusion of stricter ethics provisions to restrict the president and federal officials from profiting from cryptocurrency assets; the Republican Party recently submitted a revised draft incorporating a ban on elected officials profiting from cryptocurrency transactions.
Ron Hammond, Wintermute’s policy lead, said that recent calls by Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer for Democrats to focus their political efforts before the midterm elections on Trump and related corruption issues may reduce Democrats’ willingness to support the bill.
Analysts say that even if the bill fails to pass before adjournment, there is still a window before year-end, but government funding, defense, and other issues may crowd out its agenda.