Huo Xing Cai Jing reports that on July 24, the long-awaited progress of the U.S. cryptocurrency industry’s CLARITY Act was once again stalled. With Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicating that the bill is unlikely to be voted on before the August recess, market expectations for its passage this year have significantly declined. Polymarket data shows that as of July 24, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year is approximately 37%, far below the over 80% level seen earlier this spring. The CLARITY Act aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets and facilitate the integration of crypto assets into mainstream finance. While there is broad bipartisan consensus on the bill’s core provisions, conflicts of interest involving President Trump and his family’s crypto business have become the primary obstacle in legislative negotiations. Democrats are demanding stricter ethics provisions to restrict the president and federal officials from profiting from crypto assets. Although Trump previously opposed such restrictions, Republicans have recently shifted their stance and submitted a revised draft incorporating provisions that prohibit elected officials from profiting from crypto asset trading. However, Democratic lawmakers argue that the revised ethics provisions contain significant loopholes and fail to effectively address the issue of the Trump family reaping substantial profits from meme coins and other crypto projects. Ron Hammond, Policy Lead at crypto firm Wintermute, noted that Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer has recently urged Democrats to focus their political messaging before the midterm elections on Trump and related corruption issues, potentially reducing Democratic willingness to support the CLARITY Act. Hammond believes that opposition from the banking sector and crypto critics has slowed the bill’s progress, but he added: “The votes are there—it’s just that election politics have a greater impact.” Analysts point out that even if the CLARITY Act fails to pass before the current recess, a window remains before Congress adjourns for the year. However, with critical matters such as government funding and defense still pending, the crypto industry’s bill may face scheduling pressures. As the November midterm elections approach, potential shifts in the balance of power within the U.S. Congress could further influence the trajectory of crypto regulatory legislation.
Outlook for U.S. CLARITY Act Passage Dimmed by Trump Crypto Conflict
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Summary
The U.S. CLARITY Act faces delays, as Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated passage before the August recess is unlikely. Digital asset regulation remains stalled amid disputes over the CFT and Trump’s crypto connections. As of July 24, the bill’s probability on Polymarket fell to 37% from over 80% in the spring. Democrats are pushing for stricter ethics rules to limit federal officials’ crypto profits, while a revised GOP draft still permits Trump’s family to benefit from meme coins. Schumer’s focus on CFT-related corruption ahead of the midterms may undermine Democratic support. A late-year push remains possible but faces strong competition.
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