Correlation between U.S. capital spending firms and the semiconductor index is near zero

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As of July 24, 2026, the 30-day correlation between major U.S. capital spending firms and the semiconductor index (SOX) has fallen to near zero—the lowest level in four and a half years. The figure dropped sharply from +0.78 in April, below the +0.60 average since 2022. Chip stocks have risen since early June, while AI infrastructure firms have declined, indicating investors no longer view them as a single trade. Analysts say the next phase of AI trading will depend on profitability, not just the scale of investment. With the Fear & Greed Index showing mixed sentiment, hyperscalers must now demonstrate that their spending achieves the right return on investment.

BlockBeats news, on July 24, data showed that the 30-day correlation between U.S. major capital expenditure companies and the semiconductor index (SOX) has dropped to near zero, the lowest level in at least 4.5 years, falling sharply from +0.78 in April and well below the average of +0.60 since 2022.


Since early June, semiconductor stocks have risen while the shares of major AI infrastructure spenders have fallen, indicating that investors no longer view chip manufacturers and hyperscale data center builders as the same trade—chipmakers are benefiting from AI demand, while spending companies face questions about returns.


Analysis suggests that the next phase of AI trading will be determined by profitability rather than investment scale, and hyperscalers must demonstrate that their massive expenditures generate sufficient returns.

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