BlockBeats news: On September 4, at 8:30 PM Beijing time, the U.S. will release the August non-farm payroll report. The market expects an increase of 56,000 non-farm jobs, compared to an unexpected decline of 23,000 in July. Economists’ forecasts range from a decrease of 25,000 to an increase of 121,000, reflecting significant divergence in market views on labor market conditions.
The market expects the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1%, though some economists forecast a rise to 4.2%; annual wage growth may slow from 3.2% to 3%. Morgan Stanley’s chief economist, Michael Gapen, estimates that the revocation of temporary protected status for Haitian immigrants could reduce non-farm payrolls by approximately 15,000 jobs. However, increased employment in local government education, leisure, and hospitality sectors may provide some support.
Most economists believe that, barring a significant surprise in the non-farm payrolls data, the report is unlikely to directly determine the interest rate outcome of the Fed’s September 15–16 meeting; market focus will shift to next week’s CPI. Fed Governor Waller clearly stated on Thursday that if upcoming data confirms that inflationary pressures are easing, he favors maintaining rates unchanged this month. Currently, the market prices in a 50% probability of a rate hike in September, down from 63.2% on Wednesday.