BlockBeats news, on October 7, as U.S. long-term Treasury yields recently surged to their highest level since 2002, two well-known strategists who have long been bearish on sovereign bonds have begun shifting to a bullish stance. Anatole Kaletsky, co-founder of Gavekal Research, began advocating for 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries this week; meanwhile, Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, also turned bullish on long-term U.S. Treasuries last week—his first positive outlook on the asset in six years.
On Monday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at approximately 5.31%, and the 30-year yield rose to 5.66%, both reaching their highest closing levels since 2002. Bianco believes that, following sustained selling, the current absolute yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries have become attractive. Although TLT, with assets of about $47 billion, experienced 10 consecutive trading days of declines, it has still seen a net inflow of approximately $5.3 billion year to date.
Kaletsky has advised avoiding government bonds in major developed economies since 2022, but now believes U.S. interest rates may fall again in the future; Bianco, however, argues that long-term bonds could still offer hedging value if the economy shows clear weakening or if equity markets experience a significant correction. Nevertheless, factors such as the U.S. fiscal deficit, government bond supply, AI companies’ financing needs, war expenditures, and rising energy prices may continue to push up long-term yields.