Foreign media report that markets are overlaying the Middle East situation with Bitcoin’s short-term price movements. The report, citing The Wall Street Journal, states that Trump is privately considering whether to formally declare an end to the war with Iran. Amid this news, Iran’s strikes against U.S. targets in the Middle East continue, and volatility in oil prices and bond markets is intensifying.
Trump is reportedly considering announcing the end of the war.
The report noted that Trump tends to favor de-escalating the conflict, but the U.S. has not yet responded militarily to the latest round of attacks. Sources said the White House is currently more focused on stabilizing markets than immediately expanding its strikes, partly due to rapidly rising oil prices and partly due to pressure on interceptor missile inventories.
When asked on Wednesday how long the bombing campaign would last, Trump said, “It won’t be long.” This followed the United States’ second strike in three days, targeting radar systems and mine-laying equipment along Iran’s southern coast. In response, Iran continued its attacks on U.S. bases in the Middle East using drones and missiles.
Oil prices and risk appetite have become key variables.
The report suggests that if the conflict clearly de-escalates, the first market changes may come from crude oil. Brent crude briefly dropped to $95.20 per barrel, and U.S. WTI crude fell to $90.77 per barrel, but both remained significantly higher for the week, indicating that geopolitical risk premiums have not yet faded.
High oil prices have begun to spread their impact to broader markets. Diesel prices are nearing a four-year high, and global bond markets are also under increased pressure. If oil prices decline, investor preference for risk assets may recover, and the Federal Reserve’s room for rate cuts could be reconsidered—conditions viewed as crucial for Bitcoin and other highly volatile assets.
Bitcoin short-term focus: $78,000 and $70,000
The article also cites market analysts who note that Bitcoin is currently approaching a key resistance level near $78,000. A breakout above this level could reopen the path toward the $100,000 target; however, a weekly close below $70,000 may lead to another test of recent lows.
The core judgment of this review is that geopolitical developments over the next 24 to 48 hours may influence Bitcoin’s direction as significantly as technical charts themselves. If expectations of a ceasefire rise, leading to lower oil prices and improved risk appetite, upward pressure on BTC could ease; if the conflict escalates further, risk-off sentiment and rising energy prices may continue to suppress crypto market performance.