Trump Imposes Tariffs on Polysilicon; Saudi Official Warns of Iran-Backed Attacks

Review today's market trends and stay on top of market movements. Good morning, listeners. Today is Friday, August 7, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Rush. Futures Morning Rush — the top choice for millions of futures professionals!

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1. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced that there are numerous uncertain factors affecting the urea market recently.

2. According to Reuters, an official decree shows that the Democratic Republic of the Congo has banned the export of copper and cobalt concentrates.

3. According to Mysteel, WBN, one of Indonesia’s largest nickel ore suppliers, has been approved for an additional approximately 25 million wet metric tons of nickel ore RKAB quota in the second half of 2026.

4. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), as of August 4, 2026, the percentage of drought-affected areas in U.S. soybean-producing regions was 26%, unchanged from last week.

5. World Gold Council: Global gold ETFs attracted $3 billion in inflows in July, reversing a two-month trend of outflows.

6. According to CCTV, on August 6 local time, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, implementing minimum import prices and additional tariffs on imported polysilicon and its derivative products to support the U.S. domestic polysilicon, semiconductor, and solar supply chains.

7. According to USDA data, net soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 marketing week ending July 30 were 32,000 metric tons, significantly below the market expectation of 100,000 to 400,000 metric tons.

1. According to Saudi media Al-Hadath: Senior sources say Iran and Oman have reached a preliminary agreement on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with the deal potentially to be announced within days; the agreement still requires approval from Iran’s National Security Council and will last 60 days, aiming to restore navigation.

2. The Financial Times of the UK reported that, according to informed sources, if upcoming inflation data over the next few weeks shows strong readings and market expectations for higher borrowing costs rise, Fed Chair Walsh will be prepared to raise interest rates at the September meeting.

3. The Houthi armed forces of Yemen warn Saudi Arabia not to take any aggressive actions against Yemen and its people, or else bear the consequences of any escalation.

4. According to Iran's Fars News Agency: Under the agreement, U.S. and Israeli vessels are prohibited from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

5. A Saudi official stated that multiple intelligence reports indicate that the Houthis, Iraqi militias, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard are coordinating to plan attacks against Saudi Arabia.

1. International precious metals futures generally closed lower; COMEX gold futures fell 0.15% to $4,298.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.81% to $61.78 per ounce.

2. The front-month U.S. crude oil contract rose 4.0% to close at $78.23 per barrel; the front-month Brent crude oil contract increased 4.57% to $83.08 per barrel.

3. Most base metals in London closed lower; LME zinc rose 1.09% to $3,769.5/ton, LME aluminum rose 0.80% to $3,267.0/ton, LME lead fell 0.05% to $1,884.5/ton, LME copper fell 0.13% to $14,092.5/ton, LME tin fell 0.94% to $56,185.0/ton, and LME nickel fell 2.30% to $16,720.0/ton.

1. According to Mysteel, as of the week ending August 6, rebar production decreased for the second consecutive week, social inventories increased for the third consecutive week, mill inventories shifted from decline to increase, and apparent demand turned from growth to decline. Rebar production stood at 1.898 million tons, down 105,100 tons from the previous week, a 5.25% decrease; apparent demand was 1.7848 million tons, down 204,600 tons from the previous week, a 10.28% decrease.

2. According to Mysteel, Hebei Iron & Steel Group’s first inquiry for ferrosilicon in August 2026 is at RMB 5,800/ton, compared to RMB 5,950/ton in July and RMB 6,200/ton in August 2025. The procurement volume for ferrosilicon is 16,600 tons in August, compared to 15,400 tons in July and 16,100 tons in August 2025. For ferrosilicon, Hebei Iron & Steel Group’s inquiry for August is at RMB 6,000/ton, compared to RMB 6,130/ton in July. The tender volume for 75B ferrosilicon in August is 3,640 tons, up by 260 tons from the previous tender of 3,380 tons.

3. This week, Mysteel reported that the capacity utilization rate for 523 coking coal mines was 67.0%, a decrease of 0.1% month-over-month. The daily average raw coal production was 1.504 million tons, down 0.2 million tons month-over-month, and raw coal inventories stood at 4.141 million tons, down 0.71 million tons month-over-month.

4. According to Mysteel’s survey on the profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants nationwide, the national average profit this week was -41 yuan/ton; the average profit for secondary-grade coke in Shanxi was -30 yuan/ton, for secondary-grade coke in Shandong was -6 yuan/ton, for metallurgical coke in Inner Mongolia was -56 yuan/ton, and for secondary-grade coke in Hebei was 3 yuan/ton.

1. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has announced that there are numerous uncertain factors affecting the urea market recently. All member units are urged to strengthen investor education and risk prevention, and to remind investors to participate rationally and trade in compliance with regulations.

2. A price sheet shows that Saudi Aramco, the Saudi national oil company, will lower the price of Arab light crude oil for Asian customers by 50 cents per barrel next month, to $2 below the regional benchmark.

3. According to data from Singapore’s Enterprise Singapore (ESG), as of the week ending August 5, Singapore’s fuel oil inventories rose by 1.443 million barrels to a five-week high of 19.577 million barrels.

4. According to Longzhong Information, as of August 6, the total MEG inventory in the East China main ports amounted to 354,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons from Monday and 62,000 tons from last Thursday, marking the lowest level this year and the lowest for the same period in the past five years; this week’s total domestic ethylene glycol production reached 345,700 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons, up 1.31% week-over-week.

5. According to Longzhong Information data, as of August 6, the total inventory of domestic soda ash producers reached 1.8495 million tons, an increase of 26,900 tons from Monday, up 1.48%; last year’s inventory was 1.8651 million tons, down 15,600 tons year-over-year, a decrease of 0.84%.

6. According to Longzhong Information, as of August 6, 2026, the national daily output of float glass was 1.422 million metric tons, a 0.42% decrease from July 30; the national weekly output of float glass was 9.955 million metric tons, down 0.42% week-over-week and 10.84% year-over-year. The total inventory of sample enterprises nationwide stood at 74.898 million standard boxes, a decrease of 455,000 standard boxes (0.6%) week-over-week and an increase of 21.1% year-over-year. The inventory turnover days stood at 34.3 days, a reduction of 0.1 day from the previous period.

7. The EIA natural gas report showed that, as of the week ending July 31, the total U.S. natural gas inventory stood at 3.117 trillion cubic feet, an increase of 33 billion cubic feet from the previous week, a decrease of 12 billion cubic feet compared to the same period last year, representing a year-over-year decline of 0.4%, while being 195 billion cubic feet higher than the five-year average, an increase of 6.7%.

1. According to Reuters, an official decree shows that the Democratic Republic of the Congo has banned the export of copper and cobalt concentrates. The country will tax mining by-products of significant economic value using a 55% valuation coefficient under a new tax regime. The new tax framework will take effect in three months, but mining companies must immediately begin reporting by-products in their exports.

2. According to Mysteel, WBN, one of Indonesia’s largest nickel ore suppliers, has been approved for an additional approximately 25 million wet metric tons of nickel ore RKAB quota for the second half of 2026. Including the quota approved for the first half of the year, WBN’s total 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota has increased to approximately 37 million wet metric tons. As of now, no official documentation has been issued to WBN regarding this quota approval.

3. World Gold Council: Global gold ETFs attracted $3 billion in inflows in July, reversing two consecutive months of outflows and raising total assets under management to $530 billion; holdings increased by 23 metric tons to 4,068 metric tons.

4. According to the China Gold Association, in the first half of 2026, domestic and imported raw materials combined produced 229.988 tons of gold, a decrease of 22.773 tons year-over-year, or 9.01%. Meanwhile, gold consumption in China reached 511.412 tons, an increase of 1.23% year-over-year.

5. According to Mysteel, as of August 6, the spot inventory of lithium ore among 32 sampled lithium ore traders amounted to 124,000 metric tons, an increase of 15,000 metric tons week-over-week, including 91,000 metric tons of sellable inventory, up 27,000 metric tons week-over-week.

6. SMM statistics show that domestic social inventories of cast aluminum ingots have decreased to 24,000 metric tons, marking ten consecutive weeks of drawdowns with a cumulative reduction of 38,900 metric tons. However, the drawdown pace significantly slowed this week, with only a 0.02-metric-ton decrease from last week, indicating further weakening in outbound momentum.

7. According to Aladdin, construction of the Guinea Silver Valley International Bauxite Project is progressing smoothly, with the entire project expected to be completed by December this year; system commissioning will begin in January to February 2027, with official production and export of ore commencing in March, at a designed annual capacity of 30 million tons.

8. The CEO of Albemarle, a global lithium giant, stated that global lithium inventories remain low due to weak supply unable to meet growing demand from electric vehicles and battery storage, leaving the spot lithium market tight. The forecast for battery storage production in 2026 has been raised by 11%; the lower bound of the global lithium demand forecast for 2030 has been increased by 100,000 metric tons.

9. According to CCTV, on August 6 local time, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, implementing minimum import prices and additional tariffs on imported polysilicon and its derivative products to support the U.S. domestic polysilicon, semiconductor, and solar supply chains.

1. Methanol remains weak as the Hormuz situation disrupts future supply.

China Everbright Futures analysis notes that methanol continued its weak trend on Thursday, with the 2609 contract falling over 3% during the session. Expectations of resumed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have risen; currently, the number of vessels passing through the strait remains significantly below pre-conflict levels, with shipping only in a limited state of recovery and not fully reopened. Iran is China’s largest source of methanol imports, and nearly all Iranian methanol exports transit through the Strait of Hormuz. If navigation gradually resumes, Iranian production facilities could slowly resume outward shipments, leading to a modest increase in future-month import arrivals. The decline in geopolitical risk premiums has contributed to methanol’s downward movement. In the short term, methanol may remain under pressure from crude oil, but attention should also be paid to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising coal prices increasing costs, and restocking ahead of the downstream peak season.

2. Approval of new WBN quotas has dispelled expectations of supply tightening, with SHFE nickel hitting a new low for the period!

Hua Wen Futures analysis noted that on Thursday, the main SHFE nickel contract 2609 opened with a sharp decline, turning from gains to losses during the session, with a maximum intraday drop of nearly 2.8%. By the afternoon close, the main nickel contract was trading at RMB 127,460 per ton, down 2.69%, hitting a new low for the period. The approval of additional quotas for WBN has disrupted the market’s previous consensus expectation of tightened nickel ore supply from Indonesia, significantly weakening the support rationale from the ore side. Although domestic refined nickel production continues to decline and high sulfur prices provide some downward support, elevated inventories combined with expectations of ample supply have clearly pressured nickel prices in the short term. Future attention should focus on the approval outcomes of additional RKAB quotas from other Indonesian mines and shifts in macro sentiment; nickel prices are likely to remain weak in the near term.

1. TBA on August 7: China's total imports and exports and key commodity data for July;

2. TBA on August 7: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) releases monthly report;

3. On August 7 at 20:30, the U.S. non-farm payroll employment and unemployment rate for July, seasonally adjusted.